Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group F 2017/2018

Nerostellati Pratola

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Monticelli play Nerostellati Pratola in the Serie D - Group F 2017/2018. It looks like a close match. Recently, Monticelli averaged 0.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Nerostellati Pratola averaged 0.53 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. In past meetings, Monticelli won 0, Nerostellati Pratola won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 15, 2018 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Monticelli and 1.25 for Nerostellati Pratola. This points to a Monticelli double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Monticelli

35%

Draws

25%

Nerostellati Pratola

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Monticelli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Monticelli picked up more points recently compared to Nerostellati Pratola.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.25 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 71%

Over 2.5 Goals 40%

Over 3.5 Goals 24%

Over 4.5 Goals 12%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%

Monticelli Clean Sheet 19%

Nerostellati Pratola Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 64%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Monticelli	Nerostellati Pratola
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	5	3
Draws	13	9
Losses	12	18
Goals Scored	0.7	0.53
Goals Conceded	1.3	1.83
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 15, 2018 Serie D - Group F

Monticelli vs Nerostellati Pratola

Possession: 56% - 58% Cards: 0 - 0

1:1

Nov 25, 2017 Serie D - Group F

Nerostellati Pratola vs Monticelli

Possession: 45% - 53% Cards: 3 - 1

1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monticelli 40 / 100

Nerostellati Pratola 25 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Monticelli Nerostellati Pratola

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Monticelli or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +25.2%

3.13

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +17.6%

2.94

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Monticelli attacking → ← attacking Nerostellati Pratola

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monticelli scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Nerostellati Pratola let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Monticelli went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Nerostellati Pratola lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

28 Points in last 5 18

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vis Pesaro	34	23	4	7	61:29	73
2	Matelica	34	22	5	7	66:28	71
3	Avezzano	34	16	14	4	51:26	62
4	Pineto	34	15	12	7	53:41	57
5	Aquila Calcio	34	15	10	9	57:40	55
6	ASD Francavilla	34	14	11	9	47:38	53
7	San Marino Calcio	34	15	6	13	45:35	51
8	Vastese	34	15	6	13	55:50	51
9	Sangiustese	34	13	9	12	39:41	48
10	Campobasso	34	13	10	11	41:40	45
11	Castelfidardo	34	12	8	14	43:54	44
12	Recanatese	34	12	7	15	47:47	43
13	Agnonese	34	11	8	15	34:35	41
14	Notaresco Calcio	34	11	7	16	42:51	40
15	Jesina	34	8	10	16	32:46	34
16	Monticelli	34	5	15	14	25:45	30
17	Fabriano Cerreto	34	5	5	24	29:69	20
18	Nerostellati Pratola	34	3	9	22	19:71	18