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Montijo vs Gevora

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

74' Event
Diaz D.

AI Match Summary

Gevora in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gevora.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Montijo
15%
Draws
46%
Gevora
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gevora

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Montijo lately — more wins on the board than Gevora.
  • Montijo are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Montijo Clean Sheet 16%
Gevora Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montijo Gevora
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 7
Draws 6 6
Losses 13 16
Goals Scored 1.17 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montijo vs Gevora
0:1
Dec 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Gevora vs Montijo
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montijo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Gevora Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montijo 36 / 100
Gevora 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montijo Gevora

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montijo scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Gevora has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Montijo has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Montijo VS Gevora
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Montijo

(Home)
27 Sept
Villanovense
2 : 0
Montijo
20 Sept
Montijo
3 : 1
Guadiana
13 Sept
CD Azuaga
2 : 0
Montijo
06 Sept
Montijo
1 : 3
Cabeza del Buey
10 May
Montijo
2 : 1
Santa Amalia
Page 1 of 6

Gevora

(Away)
27 Sept
Gevora
3 : 1
Pueblonuevo
20 Sept
Quintana
0 : 0
Gevora
13 Sept
Gevora
4 : 2
UP Plasencia
05 Sept
Castuera
5 : 0
Gevora
08 Aug
Cacereno
2 : 1
Gevora
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 70:22 71
2 CD Badajoz 34 23 5 6 64:27 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 54:32 62
4 CD Azuaga 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
5 Jaraiz 34 16 11 7 53:33 59
6 Cabeza del Buey 34 15 12 7 45:29 57
7 SP Villafranca 34 16 7 11 45:40 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 45:36 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 43:42 46
10 Jerez CF 34 8 17 9 56:51 41
11 AD Llerenense 34 11 8 15 35:44 41
12 Puebla de la Calzada 34 9 11 14 35:48 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 30:52 34
14 Gevora 34 8 9 17 32:53 33
15 Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 29:55 33
16 CD Diocesano 34 6 12 16 33:63 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 24:66 23
18 CD Calamonte 34 3 13 18 25:47 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)