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Montijo vs Ursaria

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

72' Event
Alcalde J.
(Penalty)
83' Event
Pascual B.

AI Match Summary

Ursaria in this Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ursaria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Montijo
15%
Draws
42%
Ursaria
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Montijo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Montijo haven't matched Ursaria's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Montijo Clean Sheet 21%
Ursaria Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montijo Ursaria
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 10 11
Draws 6 5
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 1.13 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.42 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 24, 2024 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Ursaria vs Montijo
4:1
Nov 12, 2023 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Montijo vs Ursaria
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montijo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Ursaria Compare

Top Goalscorer Pascual B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montijo 32 / 100
Ursaria 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montijo Ursaria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ursaria Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Montijo scored in 65% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: Ursaria conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Ursaria's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Montijo VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Montijo

(Home)
20 Sept
Montijo
3 : 1
Guadiana
13 Sept
CD Azuaga
2 : 0
Montijo
06 Sept
Montijo
1 : 3
Cabeza del Buey
10 May
Montijo
2 : 1
Santa Amalia
02 May
CD Azuaga
4 : 2
Montijo
Page 1 of 7

Ursaria

(Away)
05 May
Ursaria
1 : 0
Villanovense
28 Apr
Navalcarnero
2 : 1
Ursaria
21 Apr
Ursaria
0 : 1
Numancia
14 Apr
Illescas
1 : 2
Ursaria
07 Apr
Ursaria
0 : 1
Atletico Paso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnastica Segoviana 34 17 10 7 46:27 61
2 San Sebastian Reyes 34 16 13 5 61:26 61
3 Numancia 34 18 6 10 51:39 60
4 Getafe B 34 15 12 7 41:32 57
5 Atletico Paso 34 15 11 8 28:21 56
6 Cacereno 34 12 13 9 43:37 49
7 Union Adarve 34 12 12 10 44:44 48
8 Navalcarnero 34 11 13 10 34:35 46
9 CF Talavera 34 12 10 12 31:27 46
10 Guadalajara 34 14 4 16 46:53 46
11 Villanovense 34 12 8 14 35:35 44
12 Ursaria 34 12 8 14 34:39 44
13 Illescas 34 11 11 12 34:32 44
14 AD Llerenense 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
15 UD San Fernando 34 9 11 14 31:43 38
16 CD Badajoz 34 8 13 13 35:39 37
17 Mensajero 34 5 10 19 28:58 25
18 Montijo 34 6 5 23 28:58 23
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 (Promotion - Play Offs)