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Montilla vs Algeciras

Spain Spain

Tercera Division - Group 10 2012/2013
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Montilla play Algeciras in the Tercera Division - Group 10 2012/2013. It looks like a close match. Recently, Montilla averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Algeciras averaged 1.19 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Montilla won 0, Algeciras won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 19, 2013 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.23 for Montilla and 1.18 for Algeciras. This points to a Algeciras double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Montilla
24%
Draws
52%
Algeciras
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Algeciras

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence
  • Montilla picked up more points recently compared to Algeciras.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.23 vs 1.18 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 41%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Montilla Clean Sheet 20%
Algeciras Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 62%
Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montilla Algeciras
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 6 14
Draws 6 9
Losses 18 9
Goals Scored 0.93 1.19
Goals Conceded 1.4 1

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 19, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Algeciras vs Montilla
4:0
Jan 6, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Montilla vs Algeciras
1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montilla 26 / 100
Algeciras 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montilla Algeciras

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Algeciras or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +50%
6.25
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.3%
2.86
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Montilla attacking → ← attacking Algeciras

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montilla scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Algeciras let in goals in 44% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Montilla went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Algeciras lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

24 Points in last 5 51
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Algeciras382113465:2776
2Cordoba B382112559:2275
3Coria C.F.381911864:3768
4Mairena381714747:2865
5AD Ceuta381891163:3863
6Cabecense381417752:3559
7CD Alcala3816101249:3958
8Atl. Onubense (Huelva B)381481657:5750
9San Roque de Cadiz371481545:5550
10Portuense3711161035:3349
11Cadiz B3812111536:4747
12Conil3811121546:5645
13Sevilla C3810141440:4644
14CMD San Juan3810131535:4443
15Pozoblanco3810111730:5041
16Arcos CF381181937:5941
17Ayamonte381172035:6140
18Antoniano389131634:5140
19Los Barrios389111830:5538
20Montilla38962337:5633