Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Montpellier vs Clermont

France France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Fayad K.
22' Event
Mendy A.
Assist: Tchato E.
25' Event
Salmier Y.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 2 2025/2026 game between Montpellier and Clermont finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Clermont.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Montpellier
30%
Draws
34%
Clermont
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Montpellier

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Montpellier carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Montpellier are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Montpellier Clean Sheet 20%
Clermont Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montpellier Clermont
Matches Played 27 26
Wins 13 7
Draws 6 7
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.38 1
Goals Conceded 1 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Ligue 2
Montpellier vs Clermont
1:2
Oct 28, 2025 Ligue 2
Clermont vs Montpellier
1:1
Apr 14, 2024 Ligue 1
Clermont vs Montpellier
1:1
Nov 29, 2023 Ligue 1
Montpellier vs Clermont
1:1
Jul 26, 2023 Club Friendly
Clermont vs Montpellier
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montpellier Compare

Top Goalscorer Mendy A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Clermont Compare

Top Goalscorer Salmier Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hunou A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montpellier 36 / 100
Clermont 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montpellier Clermont

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Clermont conceded in 81% of 26 recent games.

Montpellier found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (27 games).

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Solid form: Montpellier remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Montpellier VS Clermont
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Montpellier

(Home)
11 Jul
Montpellier
3 : 2
Aubagne FC
09 May
Red Star
1 : 1
Montpellier
02 May
Montpellier
1 : 2
Clermont
24 Apr
Amiens SC
0 : 2
Montpellier
17 Apr
Montpellier
2 : 1
Grenoble
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Clermont

(Away)
15 Jul
Clermont
0 : 0
Bourges 18
11 Jul
Clermont
1 : 0
Orleans
09 May
Clermont
1 : 0
Guingamp
02 May
Montpellier
1 : 2
Clermont
24 Apr
Clermont
1 : 1
Bastia
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Troyes34207760:3367
2Le Mans341614450:3162
3St Etienne341861059:3860
4Red Star341610845:3758
5Rodez341513645:3958
6Reims341414653:3556
7Annecy341571249:3952
8Montpellier341491141:3151
9Pau341291348:6245
10Dunkerque3411101353:4543
11Guingamp3410101442:4940
12Grenoble348151133:3939
13Clermont349101538:4437
14Nancy349101535:5237
15Boulogne34991634:4936
16Laval346141430:4832
17Bastia345131623:3928
18Amiens SC34662237:6524
19AC Ajaccio00000:00
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 (Main)