Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Montpellier vs Clermont

France France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Fayad K.
22' Event
Mendy A.
Assist: Tchato E.
25' Event
Salmier Y.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 2 2025/2026 game between Montpellier and Clermont finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Clermont.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Montpellier
35%
Draws
25%
Clermont
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Montpellier

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Montpellier carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Montpellier are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Montpellier Clean Sheet 20%
Clermont Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montpellier Clermont
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 6
Draws 8 13
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.59 1
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Club Friendly
Clermont vs Montpellier
0:1
May 2, 2026 Ligue 2
Montpellier vs Clermont
1:2
Oct 28, 2025 Ligue 2
Clermont vs Montpellier
1:1
Apr 14, 2024 Ligue 1
Clermont vs Montpellier
1:1
Nov 29, 2023 Ligue 1
Montpellier vs Clermont
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montpellier Compare

Top Goalscorer Mendy A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Clermont Compare

Top Goalscorer Salmier Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hunou A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montpellier 49 / 100
Clermont 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montpellier Clermont

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Montpellier Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montpellier found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Clermont conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: Montpellier remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Montpellier VS Clermont
1.5 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Montpellier

(Home)
18 Sept
Reims
1 : 1
Montpellier
11 Sept
Montpellier
1 : 0
Pau
05 Sept
St Etienne
3 : 1
Montpellier
28 Aug
Montpellier
0 : 0
Boulogne
21 Aug
Dunkerque
0 : 1
Montpellier
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Clermont

(Away)
18 Sept
Grenoble
1 : 1
Clermont
11 Sept
Clermont
0 : 0
Boulogne
04 Sept
Dunkerque
1 : 1
Clermont
28 Aug
Clermont
0 : 0
Sochaux
21 Aug
Clermont
1 : 1
Dijon
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Troyes 34 20 7 7 60:33 67
2 Le Mans 34 16 14 4 50:31 62
3 St Etienne 34 18 6 10 59:38 60
4 Red Star 34 16 10 8 45:37 58
5 Rodez 34 15 13 6 45:39 58
6 Reims 34 14 14 6 53:35 56
7 Annecy 34 15 7 12 49:39 52
8 Montpellier 34 14 9 11 41:31 51
9 Pau 34 12 9 13 48:62 45
10 Dunkerque 34 11 10 13 53:45 43
11 Guingamp 34 10 10 14 42:49 40
12 Grenoble 34 8 15 11 33:39 39
13 Clermont 34 9 10 15 38:44 37
14 Nancy 34 9 10 15 35:52 37
15 Boulogne 34 9 9 16 34:49 36
16 Laval 34 6 14 14 30:48 32
17 Bastia 34 5 13 16 23:39 28
18 Amiens SC 34 6 6 22 37:65 24
19 AC Ajaccio 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 (Main)