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Montpellier vs Pau - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 2 Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier
Our Tip

Match Events

51'
Abdallah A.
54'
Laporte J.
60'
Fall C.

AI Match Summary

Montpellier in this Ligue 2 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Montpellier.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Montpellier
15%
Draws
42%
Pau
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Montpellier

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Montpellier lately — more wins on the board than Pau.
  • Montpellier are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Montpellier Clean Sheet 68%
Pau Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montpellier Pau
Matches Played 29 26
Wins 16 12
Draws 8 3
Losses 5 11
Goals Scored 1.76 1.27
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.65
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 Ligue 2
Montpellier vs Pau
1:0
Mar 20, 2026 Ligue 2
Pau vs Montpellier
0:0
Dec 6, 2025 Ligue 2
Montpellier vs Pau
0:1
Jan 6, 2023 Coupe de France
Pau vs Montpellier
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montpellier Compare

Top Goalscorer Sainte-Luce T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Pau Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montpellier 86 / 100
Pau 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montpellier Pau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Montpellier Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montpellier's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Pau has conceded goals in 73% of their last 26 outings.

Solid form: Montpellier remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Historical meetings average 1.25 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Montpellier VS Pau
1.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Montpellier

(Home)
06 Nov
Montpellier
2 : 3
Metz
31 Oct
Annecy
0 : 3
Montpellier
26 Oct
Montpellier
2 : 1
Red Star
19 Oct
Rodez
0 : 3
Montpellier
09 Oct
Montpellier
2 : 0
Grenoble
Page 1 of 6

Pau

(Away)
07 Nov
Pau
0 : 2
Nantes
30 Oct
Metz
1 : 3
Pau
23 Oct
Pau
2 : 1
Grenoble
16 Oct
Guingamp
1 : 2
Pau
09 Oct
Pau
3 : 2
Laval
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 St Etienne 12 9 1 2 25:11 28
2 Nancy 12 8 1 3 17:9 25
3 Montpellier 12 7 3 2 18:9 24
4 Reims 12 5 6 1 24:15 21
5 Pau 12 6 2 4 16:13 20
6 Dijon 12 5 3 4 21:19 18
7 Metz 12 4 5 3 20:19 17
8 Red Star 12 5 2 5 14:17 17
9 Annecy 12 5 1 6 14:18 16
10 Dunkerque 12 4 3 5 17:17 15
11 Guingamp 12 4 2 6 16:18 14
12 Boulogne 12 2 7 3 10:8 13
13 Rodez 12 4 1 7 17:23 13
14 Nantes 12 3 3 6 14:18 12
15 Clermont 12 1 8 3 11:15 11
16 Sochaux 12 2 5 5 8:15 11
17 Grenoble 12 3 2 7 13:22 11
18 Laval 12 2 3 7 14:23 9
Promotion - Ligue 1 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 2027/2028 (Main)