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Montserrat vs El Salvador

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League Antonio Trinidad Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Montserrat play El Salvador in the CONCACAF Nations League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Montserrat averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.97 conceded. El Salvador averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.09 conceded. In past meetings, Montserrat won 0, El Salvador won 4, and they drew 1. Their last match on Nov 18, 2024 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.75 for Montserrat and 1.19 for El Salvador. This points to a El Salvador double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Montserrat
20%
Draws
49%
El Salvador
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: El Salvador

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Montserrat picked up more points recently compared to El Salvador.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.75 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 50%
Over 3.5 Goals 30%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Montserrat Clean Sheet 20%
El Salvador Clean Sheet 19%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montserrat El Salvador
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 9 12
Draws 4 9
Losses 17 12
Goals Scored 1.07 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.97 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 18, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
El Salvador vs Montserrat
1:0
Sep 5, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
Montserrat vs El Salvador
1:4
Mar 28, 2021 World Championship
Montserrat vs El Salvador
1:1
Nov 17, 2019 CONCACAF Nations League
El Salvador vs Montserrat
1:0
Oct 13, 2019 CONCACAF Nations League
Montserrat vs El Salvador
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montserrat Compare

Top Goalscorer Barzey B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

El Salvador Compare

Top Goalscorer Landaverde Alvarez B. B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mauricio E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montserrat 32 / 100
El Salvador 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montserrat El Salvador

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: El Salvador or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.5%
2.27
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Montserrat attacking → ← attacking El Salvador

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montserrat scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

El Salvador let in goals in 67% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Montserrat went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

El Salvador lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 45
0.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1El Salvador650112:615
2Saint Vincent and the Grenadines641112:713
3Bonaire61144:84
4Montserrat61053:103
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Curacao641115:313
2Saint Lucia63037:159
3Grenada62137:67
4Saint Martin62048:136
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Haiti660029:518
2Puerto Rico630311:129
3Sint Maarten63037:189
4Aruba60065:170
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Dominican Republic660027:418
2Bermuda640215:1312
3Dominica61146:184
4Antigua and Barbuda60152:151