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Stadium Background

Monza vs Bari

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 U-Power Stadium (Brianteo), Monza
Our Tip

Match Events

50' Event
Obiang P.
Assist: Petagna A.
64'
Maggiore G.
66'
Sub
Mane M. In: Dorval M.
Out: Mane M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie B 2025/2026 game between Monza and Bari finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Monza.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Monza
20%
Draws
52%
Bari
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bari

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Monza carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on Bari taking it.
  • Regular Serie B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Monza have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Monza Clean Sheet 13%
Bari Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monza Bari
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 16 14
Draws 7 5
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.91 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Serie B
Monza vs Bari
2:0
Aug 31, 2025 Serie B
Bari vs Monza
1:1
Aug 19, 2006 Coppa Italia
Monza vs Bari
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Monza Compare

Top Goalscorer Obiang P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pessina M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Bari Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monza 22 / 100
Bari 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monza Bari

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bari Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monza found the back of the net in 91% of recent matches (32 games).

Defensive concern: Bari conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.67 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Monza stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Monza VS Bari
1.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Monza

(Home)
26 Sept
Monza
2 : 3
Cremonese
18 Sept
Monza
2 : 1
Sassuolo
13 Sept
Lecce
3 : 2
Monza
06 Sept
Parma
1 : 1
Monza
01 Sept
Torino
0 : 1
Monza
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Bari

(Away)
26 Sept
Bari
1 : 0
Cosenza
19 Sept
Sorrento
1 : 2
Bari
15 Sept
Bari
0 : 0
Potenza
11 Sept
Altamura
0 : 3
Bari
05 Sept
Bari
1 : 0
Casarano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)