Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Monza vs Bari

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 U-Power Stadium (Brianteo), Monza
Our Tip

Match Events

50' Event
Obiang P.
Assist: Petagna A.
64'
Maggiore G.
66'
Sub
Mane M. In: Dorval M.
Out: Mane M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie B 2025/2026 game between Monza and Bari finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Monza.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Monza
33%
Draws
27%
Bari
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Monza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Monza carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Monza taking it.
  • Regular Serie B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Monza have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Monza Clean Sheet 68%
Bari Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monza Bari
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 17 8
Draws 7 8
Losses 5 14
Goals Scored 1.88 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Serie B
Monza vs Bari
2:0
Aug 31, 2025 Serie B
Bari vs Monza
1:1
Aug 19, 2006 Coppa Italia
Monza vs Bari
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Monza Compare

Top Goalscorer Obiang P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pessina M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Bari Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monza 50 / 100
Bari 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monza Bari

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MON Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monza found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Bari conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.67 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Monza stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Monza VS Bari
1.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Monza

(Home)
24 Jul
Galatasaray
0 : 2
Monza
18 Jul
Monza
4 : 3
Pro Vercelli
29 May
Monza
0 : 2
Catanzaro
24 May
Catanzaro
0 : 2
Monza
19 May
Monza
2 : 1
Juve Stabia
Page 1 of 6

Bari

(Away)
28 Jul
Lanciano
0 : 1
Bari
22 May
Sudtirol
0 : 0
Bari
15 May
Bari
0 : 0
Sudtirol
08 May
Catanzaro
2 : 3
Bari
01 May
Bari
2 : 0
Entella
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Venezia382410477:3182
2Frosinone382312376:3481
3Monza382210661:3276
4Palermo382012661:3372
5Catanzaro381514962:5159
6Modena3815101349:3655
7Juve Stabia381118944:4551
8Avellino3813101543:5549
9Mantova381371845:5746
10Padova3812101639:4946
11Cesena3812101645:5646
12Carrarese3810141447:5244
13Sampdoria3811111635:4844
14Entella3810121636:5142
15Empoli389141547:5441
16Sudtirol388171338:4841
17Bari3810101838:6040
18Reggiana389101936:5637
19Spezia388111943:5935
20Pescara387141751:6635
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)