Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Moquegua vs Alianza Atl.

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio 25 de Noviembre, Moquegua
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Ingratti J.
20' Event
Angulo B.
Assist: Lastre E.
24' Event
Molina J.

AI Match Summary

Alianza Atl. in this Liga 1 matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alianza Atl..

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Moquegua
15%
Draws
85%
Alianza Atl.
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alianza Atl.

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Moquegua haven't matched Alianza Atl.'s recent run of results.
  • Model gives Alianza Atl. a 85% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Moquegua Clean Sheet 13%
Alianza Atl. Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Moquegua Alianza Atl.
Matches Played 33 31
Wins 9 16
Draws 8 3
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 1.06 1.61
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.35
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Liga 1
Moquegua vs Alianza Atl.
1:4
Mar 15, 2026 Liga 1
Alianza Atl. vs Moquegua
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Moquegua Compare

Top Goalscorer Angulo B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Alianza Atl. Compare

Top Goalscorer Molina J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lujan J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Moquegua 10 / 100
Alianza Atl. 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Moquegua Alianza Atl.

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alianza Atl. Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alianza Atl. has conceded goals in 81% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Moquegua scored in 58% of their last 33 outings.

Alianza Atl. lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Moquegua VS Alianza Atl.
0.5 Goals Scored 2
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Moquegua

(Home)
20 Sept
Juan Pablo II
4 : 0
Moquegua
13 Sept
Moquegua
1 : 2
Sporting Cristal
05 Sept
Cusco
2 : 0
Moquegua
30 Aug
Moquegua
1 : 4
Alianza Atl.
27 Aug
AD Tarma
2 : 0
Moquegua
Page 1 of 7

Alianza Atl.

(Away)
27 Sept
Sport Boys
2 : 5
Alianza Atl.
18 Sept
Alianza Atl.
2 : 1
Comerciantes Unidos
13 Sept
Atletico Grau
3 : 1
Alianza Atl.
04 Sept
Alianza Atl.
3 : 2
Cajamarca
30 Aug
Moquegua
1 : 4
Alianza Atl.
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deportivo Garcilaso 10 7 1 2 18:6 22
2 Universitario de Deportes 10 6 2 2 19:16 20
3 Sporting Cristal 10 6 1 3 20:10 19
4 Alianza Atl. 10 6 1 3 20:17 19
5 Sport Huancayo 10 6 1 3 16:13 19
6 Juan Pablo II 10 5 3 2 20:12 18
7 FBC Melgar 10 5 3 2 16:9 18
8 Sport Boys 10 5 3 2 14:7 18
9 Cusco 10 6 0 4 19:14 18
10 A. Lima 10 4 4 2 14:10 16
11 Atletico Grau 10 5 1 4 14:13 16
12 FC Cajamarca 10 3 1 6 18:24 10
13 Comerciantes Unidos 10 2 3 5 17:18 9
14 Cienciano 9 2 1 6 11:17 7
15 Moquegua 10 1 4 5 7:17 7
16 Los Chankas 9 2 1 6 10:23 7
17 AD Tarma 10 1 2 7 7:21 5
18 Cajamarca 10 0 2 8 11:24 2
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)