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Morabeza vs Academica Boavista

Cape Verde Cape Verde

Campeonato Nacional 2009
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Morabeza play Academica Boavista in the Campeonato Nacional 2009. It looks like a close match. Recently, Morabeza averaged 0.91 goals scored and 1.06 conceded. Academica Boavista averaged 0.69 goals scored and 1.77 conceded. In past meetings, Morabeza won 1, Academica Boavista won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 19, 2022 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Morabeza and 0.63 for Academica Boavista. This points to a Morabeza double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Morabeza
35%
Draws
22%
Academica Boavista
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Morabeza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • Morabeza picked up more points recently compared to Academica Boavista.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 0.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 62%
Over 2.5 Goals 36%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Morabeza Clean Sheet 29%
Academica Boavista Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 56%
Second Half Goal 59%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Morabeza Academica Boavista
Matches Played 32 26
Wins 8 4
Draws 14 7
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 0.91 0.69
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 19, 2022 Campeonato Nacional
Morabeza vs Academica Boavista
3:0
May 14, 2022 Campeonato Nacional
Academica Boavista vs Morabeza
0:0
May 31, 2009 Campeonato Nacional
Morabeza vs Academica Boavista
0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Morabeza 45 / 100
Academica Boavista 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Morabeza Academica Boavista

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Morabeza or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.9%
3.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Morabeza attacking → ← attacking Academica Boavista

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Morabeza scored in 63% of their last 32 games.

Academica Boavista let in goals in 73% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Morabeza went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Academica Boavista lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 19
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.50
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Academica Praia541010:513
2Mindelense540113:412
3Ultramarina521211:67
4Onze Unidos52125:57
5Santa Maria50236:132
6Foguetoes50143:151
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Sporting Praia541011:113
2SC do Porto Novo53029:69
3Vulcanico52123:47
4Morabeza52124:87
5Estrela dos Amadores52037:86
6Academica Boavista50142:91