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Morabeza vs GD Varandinha Prediction & H2H Stats

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Campeonato Nacional 2024
Morabeza Logo

Morabeza

1 - 1
FT
GD Varandinha Logo

GD Varandinha

Our Tip

Match Events

63' Event
Semedo Q.
Own Goal
87' Event
Varela I.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato Nacional 2024 game between Morabeza and GD Varandinha finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

62%
Morabeza
30%
Draws
8%
GD Varandinha
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Morabeza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Morabeza come out ahead of GD Varandinha on wins alone.
  • Model gives Morabeza a 62% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Campeonato Nacional 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Morabeza Clean Sheet 20%
GD Varandinha Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Morabeza GD Varandinha
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 5
Draws 13 8
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 0.9 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 15, 2024 Campeonato Nacional
GD Varandinha vs Morabeza
1:2
May 5, 2024 Campeonato Nacional
Morabeza vs GD Varandinha
1:1
Jun 4, 2023 Campeonato Nacional
Morabeza vs GD Varandinha
0:0
Apr 29, 2023 Campeonato Nacional
GD Varandinha vs Morabeza
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Morabeza Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

GD Varandinha Compare

Top Goalscorer Varela I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Morabeza 85 / 100
GD Varandinha 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Morabeza GD Varandinha

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Morabeza Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

GD Varandinha let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Morabeza found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 1.75 goals.

Solid form: Morabeza remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Morabeza VS GD Varandinha
1 Goals Scored 1.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Morabeza

(Home)
15 Jun
GD Varandinha
1 : 2
Morabeza
09 Jun
Morabeza
1 : 1
Barreirense
26 May
Morabeza
2 : 2
Palmeira
18 May
Palmeira
2 : 0
Morabeza
12 May
Barreirense
0 : 1
Morabeza
Page 1 of 6

GD Varandinha

(Away)
15 Jun
GD Varandinha
1 : 2
Morabeza
09 Jun
Palmeira
4 : 0
GD Varandinha
26 May
GD Varandinha
2 : 3
Barreirense
18 May
Barreirense
3 : 1
GD Varandinha
11 May
GD Varandinha
2 : 2
Palmeira
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Academico do Sal 6 3 1 2 9:8 10
2 Academica do Fogo 6 2 2 2 11:6 8
3 Rosariense 6 2 2 2 5:7 8
4 Juventude 6 1 3 2 8:12 6
Promotion - Campeonato Nacional 2024 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Palmeira 6 3 3 0 13:5 12
2 Morabeza 6 2 3 1 7:7 9
3 Barreirense 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
4 GD Varandinha 6 0 2 4 7:15 2
Promotion - Campeonato Nacional 2024 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Boavista da Praia 6 5 1 0 12:2 16
2 FC Derby 6 3 2 1 7:4 11
3 Ultramarina 6 1 1 4 5:13 4
4 Sanjoanenses 6 0 2 4 3:8 2
Promotion - Campeonato Nacional 2024 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams