Sport Picks
Match Events
4'
4'
Silva Reis R. W.
45'
45'
Messaouri I.
52'
52'
Gonzalez A.
AI Match Summary
Moralo in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Moralo.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
30%
23%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Moralo
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Moralo lately — more wins on the board than CD Diocesano.
- 47% — that's where the model lands on Moralo taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Moralo Clean Sheet 20%
CD Diocesano Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Moralo | CD Diocesano |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 17 | 5 |
| Draws | 7 | 9 |
| Losses | 4 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 0.87 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.64 | 1.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.77 | 1.10 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 25, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Moralo vs CD Diocesano
4:1
Sep 14, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Diocesano vs Moralo
4:4
Feb 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Moralo vs CD Diocesano
1:2
Oct 6, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Diocesano vs Moralo
1:0
Feb 4, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Moralo vs CD Diocesano
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Moralo Compare
Top Goalscorer Silva Reis R. W.
1 Goals Assists Leader Messaouri I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.89
CD Diocesano Compare
Top Goalscorer Gonzalez A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1
Avg xA / game 0.61
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Moralo 85 / 100
CD Diocesano 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Moralo CD Diocesano
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Moralo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 4.00 goals.
Moralo's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
CD Diocesano let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.
Moralo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Moralo VS CD Diocesano
0.88 Goals Scored 1.33
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.67
75% Over 1.5 83%
13% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 33%
Recent Form & Match History
Moralo
(Home) 20 Sept
Moralo
2 : 0 CD Zafra
13 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 3 Moralo
06 Sept
Moralo
2 : 1 Villanovense
07 Jun
CD Badajoz
0 : 0 Moralo
31 May
Moralo
0 : 2 CD Badajoz
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Moralo
2 : 0 CD Zafra
06 Sept
Moralo
2 : 1 Villanovense
31 May
Moralo
0 : 2 CD Badajoz
23 May
Moralo
0 : 0 CD Azuaga
10 May
Moralo
1 : 1 Don Benito
Page 1 of 3
CD Diocesano
(Away) 10 May
CD Diocesano
4 : 4 SP Villafranca
03 May
Don Benito
8 : 1 CD Diocesano
26 Apr
CD Diocesano
0 : 0 Santa Amalia
19 Apr
CD Azuaga
2 : 0 CD Diocesano
12 Apr
CD Diocesano
2 : 1 Gevora
Page 1 of 6
03 May
Don Benito
8 : 1 CD Diocesano
19 Apr
CD Azuaga
2 : 0 CD Diocesano
05 Apr
CD Calamonte
1 : 1 CD Diocesano
02 Apr
Pueblonuevo
2 : 1 CD Diocesano
22 Mar
Jaraiz
3 : 0 CD Diocesano
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Don Benito | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 70:22 | 71 |
| 2 | CD Badajoz | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 64:27 | 71 |
| 3 | Moralo | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 54:32 | 62 |
| 4 | CD Azuaga | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 53:31 | 62 |
| 5 | Jaraiz | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 53:33 | 59 |
| 6 | Cabeza del Buey | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 45:29 | 57 |
| 7 | SP Villafranca | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 45:40 | 55 |
| 8 | Villanovense | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 45:36 | 53 |
| 9 | Montijo | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 43:42 | 46 |
| 10 | Jerez CF | 34 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 56:51 | 41 |
| 11 | AD Llerenense | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 35:44 | 41 |
| 12 | Puebla de la Calzada | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35:48 | 38 |
| 13 | Santa Amalia | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 30:52 | 34 |
| 14 | Gevora | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 32:53 | 33 |
| 15 | Pueblonuevo | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 29:55 | 33 |
| 16 | CD Diocesano | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 33:63 | 30 |
| 17 | Montehermoso | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 24:66 | 23 |
| 18 | CD Calamonte | 34 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 25:47 | 22 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
