Sport Picks
Moravia Morawica vs Jaroslaw - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Poland
III Liga - Group IV 
Match Events
57'
57'
Rybus J.
(Penalty)
69'
69'
Sarmiento J.
85'
85'
Miroshnyk R.
AI Match Summary
The III Liga - Group IV game between Moravia Morawica and Jaroslaw finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
28%
35%
37%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Jaroslaw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
37%
/ Low Confidence
- Moravia Morawica haven't matched Jaroslaw's recent run of results.
- Model gives Jaroslaw a 37% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 85%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 85%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Moravia Morawica Clean Sheet 10%
Jaroslaw Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Moravia Morawica | Jaroslaw |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 18 | 27 |
| Wins | 3 | 12 |
| Draws | 5 | 6 |
| Losses | 10 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.22 | 2.26 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.28 | 1.78 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 2.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 27, 2026 III Liga - Group IV
Moravia Morawica vs Jaroslaw
2:2
Jul 25, 2026 Club Friendly
Jaroslaw vs Moravia Morawica
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Moravia Morawica Compare
Top Goalscorer Zadlo M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Jaroslaw Compare
Top Goalscorer Sarmiento J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Miroshnyk R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Moravia Morawica 10 / 100
Jaroslaw 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Moravia Morawica Jaroslaw
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Jaroslaw Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Jaroslaw let in goals in 89% of their last 27 matches.
Historical meetings average 4.50 goals per match.
Moravia Morawica's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 18 recent games.
Moravia Morawica has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Moravia Morawica VS Jaroslaw
1.38 Goals Scored 2.88
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Moravia Morawica
(Home) 10 Oct
Moravia Morawica
0 : 0 Wisloka Debica
03 Oct
Kolbuszowa Dolna
2 : 2 Moravia Morawica
27 Sept
Moravia Morawica
2 : 2 Jaroslaw
19 Sept
Busko-Zdroj
2 : 1 Moravia Morawica
13 Sept
Moravia Morawica
1 : 2 Czarni Polaniec
Page 1 of 4
10 Oct
Moravia Morawica
0 : 0 Wisloka Debica
27 Sept
Moravia Morawica
2 : 2 Jaroslaw
13 Sept
Moravia Morawica
1 : 2 Czarni Polaniec
30 Aug
Moravia Morawica
0 : 4 Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski
19 Aug
Moravia Morawica
4 : 2 Naprzod Jedrzejow
Page 1 of 2
Jaroslaw
(Away) 10 Oct
Wisla II
2 : 1 Jaroslaw
03 Oct
Jaroslaw
1 : 3 Naprzod Jedrzejow
27 Sept
Moravia Morawica
2 : 2 Jaroslaw
19 Sept
Jaroslaw
5 : 2 Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
12 Sept
Wislanie Skawina
3 : 1 Jaroslaw
Page 1 of 6
10 Oct
Wisla II
2 : 1 Jaroslaw
27 Sept
Moravia Morawica
2 : 2 Jaroslaw
12 Sept
Wislanie Skawina
3 : 1 Jaroslaw
19 Aug
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1 : 3 Jaroslaw
08 Aug
Wisloka Debica
3 : 1 Jaroslaw
Page 1 of 2
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelmianka Chelm | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 20:6 | 30 |
| 2 | Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 21:9 | 23 |
| 3 | Wisloka Debica | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16:13 | 23 |
| 4 | Wislanie Skawina | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19:12 | 20 |
| 5 | Naprzod Jedrzejow | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 27:21 | 20 |
| 6 | Czarni Polaniec | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18:16 | 20 |
| 7 | Jaroslaw | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 28:22 | 17 |
| 8 | Wisla II | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 15:17 | 16 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce II | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 27:27 | 14 |
| 10 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 11 | Hetman Zamosc | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 20:20 | 14 |
| 12 | Busko-Zdroj | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17:26 | 14 |
| 13 | Kolbuszowa Dolna | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 12:12 | 13 |
| 14 | Biala Podlaska | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10:17 | 12 |
| 15 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11:15 | 12 |
| 16 | Star Starachowice | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 14:19 | 11 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13:22 | 9 |
| 18 | Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12:22 | 8 |
Promotion - Division 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 (Relegation - Play Offs)
