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Morocco vs Mali

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Morocco play Mali in the Africa Cup of Nations 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Morocco averaged 1.97 goals scored and 0.45 conceded. Mali averaged 1.13 goals scored and 0.53 conceded. In past meetings, Morocco won 3, Mali won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Dec 26, 2025 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.59 for Morocco and 0.33 for Mali. This points to a Morocco double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Morocco
31%
Draws
24%
Mali
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Morocco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • Morocco picked up more points recently compared to Mali.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.59 vs 0.33 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 61%
Over 2.5 Goals 34%
Over 3.5 Goals 20%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Morocco Clean Sheet 33%
Mali Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 55%
Second Half Goal 58%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Morocco Mali
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 23 12
Draws 5 11
Losses 1 7
Goals Scored 1.97 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.45 0.53
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 0.40
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.25 0.80

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 26, 2025 Africa Cup of Nations
Morocco vs Mali
1:1
Feb 7, 2021 African Nations Championship
Mali vs Morocco
0:2
Sep 5, 2017 World Championship
Mali vs Morocco
0:0
Sep 1, 2017 World Championship
Morocco vs Mali
6:0
Mar 6, 2013 Friendly International
Morocco vs Mali
2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Morocco 47 / 100
Mali 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Morocco Mali

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Morocco or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +21.4%
3.57
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Morocco attacking → ← attacking Mali

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Morocco scored in 93% of their last 29 games.

Mali let in goals in 43% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Morocco went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Mali lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

74 Points in last 5 47
2.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.40
0.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.80

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Morocco32106:17
2Mali30302:23
3Comoros30210:22
4Zambia30211:42
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Egypt32103:17
2South Africa32015:46
3Angola30212:32
4Zimbabwe30124:61
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Nigeria33008:49
2Tunisia31116:54
3Tanzania30213:42
4Uganda30123:71
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Senegal32107:17
2D.R. Congo32105:17
3Benin31021:43
4Botswana30030:70
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Algeria33007:19
2Burkina Faso32014:26
3Sudan31021:53
4Equatorial Guinea30032:60
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Ivory Coast32105:37
2Cameroon32104:27
3Mozambique31024:53
4Gabon30034:70