Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Morocco vs Zambia

Africa Africa

African Nations Championship Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi
Morocco Logo

Morocco

3 - 1
FT
Zambia Logo

Zambia

Our Tip

Match Events

39'
Chisala W.
45' Event
Hrimat M.
Assist: Mehri Y.
46'
Sub
Bwalya L. In: Zulu C.
Out: Bwalya L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Morocco in this African Nations Championship matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Morocco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

69%
Morocco
20%
Draws
11%
Zambia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Morocco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Morocco have won more games recently than Zambia.
  • Win probability leans Morocco's way, sitting at 90%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this African Nations Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Morocco have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Morocco Clean Sheet 68%
Zambia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Morocco Zambia
Matches Played 30 26
Wins 24 8
Draws 5 4
Losses 1 14
Goals Scored 2 1
Goals Conceded 0.47 1.58
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.32
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 29, 2025 Africa Cup of Nations
Zambia vs Morocco
0:3
Sep 8, 2025 World Championship
Zambia vs Morocco
0:2
Aug 14, 2025 African Nations Championship
Morocco vs Zambia
3:1
Jun 7, 2024 World Championship
Morocco vs Zambia
2:1
Jan 24, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Zambia vs Morocco
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Morocco Compare

Top Goalscorer Hrimat M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lamlioui O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Zambia Compare

Top Goalscorer Phiri A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Morocco 95 / 100
Zambia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Morocco Zambia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 2:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Morocco scored in 93% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Zambia conceded in 65% of 26 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Morocco remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Morocco VS Zambia
1.75 Goals Scored 0.25
0.38 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Morocco

(Home)
09 Jul
France
2 : 0
Morocco
04 Jul
Canada
0 : 3
Morocco
30 Jun
Netherlands
1 : 2
Morocco
24 Jun
Morocco
4 : 2
Haiti
19 Jun
Scotland
0 : 1
Morocco
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Zambia

(Away)
31 Mar
Argentina
5 : 0
Zambia
29 Dec
Zambia
0 : 3
Morocco
26 Dec
Zambia
0 : 0
Comoros
22 Dec
Mali
1 : 1
Zambia
16 Dec
D.R. Congo
2 : 0
Zambia
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kenya 4 3 1 0 4:1 10
2 Morocco 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
3 D.R. Congo 4 2 0 2 5:4 6
4 Angola 4 1 1 2 3:6 4
5 Zambia 4 0 0 4 2:8 0
Promotion - African Nations Championship (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tanzania 4 3 1 0 5:1 10
2 Madagascar 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
3 Mauritania 4 2 1 1 2:1 7
4 Burkina Faso 4 1 0 3 5:7 3
5 Central Africa 4 0 1 3 2:7 1
Promotion - African Nations Championship (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uganda 4 2 1 1 8:6 7
2 Algeria 4 1 3 0 5:2 6
3 South Africa 4 1 3 0 6:5 6
4 Guinea 4 1 1 2 3:6 4
5 Niger 4 0 2 2 0:3 2
Promotion - African Nations Championship (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sudan 3 1 2 0 5:1 5
2 Senegal 3 1 2 0 2:1 5
3 Nigeria 3 1 0 2 2:5 3
4 Congo 3 0 2 1 2:4 2
Promotion - African Nations Championship (Play Offs)