Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Morpeth vs Leek Town

England England

NPL Premier Division 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Heath C.

AI Match Summary

Leek Town in this NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leek Town.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Morpeth
20%
Draws
40%
Leek Town
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Morpeth haven't matched Leek Town's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Leek Town's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 67.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 10%
Over 4.5 Goals 5%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Morpeth Clean Sheet 26%
Leek Town Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Morpeth Leek Town
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 12
Draws 5 9
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 1.07 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 0.80
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Morpeth vs Leek Town
0:1
Aug 16, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Leek Town vs Morpeth
1:0
Mar 29, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Morpeth vs Leek Town
1:1
Mar 8, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Leek Town vs Morpeth
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Morpeth Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Leek Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Heath C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.73
Avg xA / game 0.44

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Morpeth 21 / 100
Leek Town 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Morpeth Leek Town

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leek Town Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Morpeth scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Leek Town conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

Morpeth has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

H2H data points to 1.25 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Morpeth VS Leek Town
1.2 Goals Scored 1
0.6 Goals Conceded 0.88
60% Over 1.5 75%
20% Over 2.5 13%
20% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Morpeth

(Home)
29 Aug
Morpeth
2 : 0
Witton Albion
18 Jul
Morpeth
2 : 2
Hebburn Town
25 Apr
Morpeth
2 : 0
Warrington Town
18 Apr
Rushall
1 : 0
Morpeth
11 Apr
Hednesford
4 : 0
Morpeth
Page 1 of 6

Leek Town

(Away)
05 Sept
Sporting Khalsa
0 : 5
Leek Town
01 Sept
Leek Town
1 : 2
Warrington Town
29 Aug
Workington
3 : 2
Leek Town
26 Aug
Avro
4 : 4
Leek Town
22 Aug
Leek Town
4 : 1
Bamber Bridge
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hebburn Town 40 23 10 7 75:41 79
2 Hednesford 40 22 11 7 62:35 77
3 United of Manchester 40 21 9 10 65:41 72
4 Warrington Rylands 40 18 13 9 59:42 67
5 Stockton 40 18 12 10 62:50 63
6 Lancaster 40 17 11 12 56:45 62
7 Gainsborough 40 16 11 13 50:45 59
8 Leek Town 40 17 7 16 50:52 58
9 Cleethorpes 40 14 13 13 56:47 55
10 Ashton United 40 14 11 15 47:54 53
11 Ilkeston 40 15 7 18 52:54 52
12 Bamber Bridge 40 14 8 18 52:52 50
13 Guiseley 40 13 9 18 46:56 48
14 Warrington Town 40 12 12 16 43:63 48
15 Hyde 40 11 14 15 58:63 47
16 Rushall 40 12 11 17 48:61 47
17 Whitby 40 10 13 17 43:55 43
18 Workington 40 10 13 17 43:58 43
19 Prescot Cables 40 9 15 16 40:50 42
20 Morpeth 40 12 6 22 38:54 42
21 Stocksbridge 40 8 12 20 38:65 36
Promotion - National League North (Main)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 (Play Offs)