Sport Picks

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Morton vs Aberdeen

Scotland Scotland

League Cup 2025/2026 Cappielow Park, Greenock
Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Sub
Adeloye T. In: Taylor K.
Out: Adeloye T.
32' Event
Nilsen S.
Assist: Aouchiche A.
37' Event
Yengi K.
Assist: Milanovic N.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-3, with Aberdeen advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

8%
Morton
30%
Draws
62%
Aberdeen
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aberdeen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Morton haven't matched Aberdeen's recent run of results.
  • 62% — that's where the model lands on Aberdeen taking it.
  • Aberdeen arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Aberdeen, who have won 3 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Aberdeen here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Morton Clean Sheet 15%
Aberdeen Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Morton Aberdeen
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 4 13
Draws 6 4
Losses 18 12
Goals Scored 0.71 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.64 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2025 League Cup
Morton vs Aberdeen
0:3
Oct 22, 2016 League Cup
Morton vs Aberdeen
0:2
Aug 22, 2012 League Cup
Morton vs Aberdeen
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Morton Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Aberdeen Compare

Top Goalscorer Nilsen S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Yengi K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Morton 11 / 100
Aberdeen 76 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Morton Aberdeen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aberdeen Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aberdeen's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.33 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Morton scored in 54% of their last 28 outings.

Morton went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Morton VS Aberdeen
0.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Morton

(Home)
25 Sept
Inverness
2 : 0
Morton
19 Sept
Morton
0 : 1
Dunfermline
11 Sept
Morton
1 : 4
Livingston
05 Sept
Queen's Park
2 : 1
Morton
29 Aug
Ayr
1 : 1
Morton
Page 1 of 6

Aberdeen

(Away)
19 Sept
Hibernian
1 : 1
Aberdeen
15 Sept
Motherwell
0 : 4
Aberdeen
12 Sept
Kilmarnock
1 : 2
Aberdeen
05 Sept
Aberdeen
0 : 0
Kilmarnock
02 Sept
Celtic
3 : 0
Aberdeen
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Morton 0
Aberdeen 3
St Johnstone 0
Motherwell 1
Kilmarnock 2
Dundee Utd 1
St. Mirren 2
Hearts 1
Partick 2
Ayr 0
Celtic 4
Falkirk 1
Rangers 4
Alloa 2
Livingston 0
Hibernian 2
Quarter-finals
Aberdeen 0
Motherwell 1
Kilmarnock 2
St. Mirren 3
Partick 0
Celtic 4
Rangers 2
Hibernian 0
Semi-finals
Motherwell 1
St. Mirren 4
Celtic 3
Rangers 1
Final
St. Mirren 3
Celtic 1