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Mosta FC vs Hamrun Prediction & H2H Stats

Malta Malta

Premier League 2025/2026 Ta'Qali National Stadium, Ta' Qali
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Match Events

24'
Oderinde C.
42'
Guillaumier M.
43' Event
Portelli N.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Mosta FC and Hamrun finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mosta FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Mosta FC
20%
Draws
40%
Hamrun
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Hamrun come out ahead of Mosta FC on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Mosta FC Clean Sheet 23%
Hamrun Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mosta FC Hamrun
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 10 14
Draws 7 6
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 1.19 1.6
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 17, 2026 Premier League
Hamrun vs Mosta FC
0:2
Mar 15, 2026 Premier League
Mosta FC vs Hamrun
2:1
Sep 13, 2025 Premier League
Hamrun vs Mosta FC
2:0
Apr 12, 2025 Premier League
Mosta FC vs Hamrun
0:2
Mar 9, 2025 Premier League
Hamrun vs Mosta FC
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mosta FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Portelli N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Hamrun Compare

Top Goalscorer Eleke B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mosta FC 37 / 100
Hamrun 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mosta FC Hamrun

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hamrun Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mosta FC found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (32 games).

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Mosta FC stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Hamrun let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Mosta FC VS Hamrun
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mosta FC

(Home)
13 Sept
Mosta FC
1 : 3
Sliema
05 Sept
Marsaxlokk
1 : 1
Mosta FC
30 Aug
Mosta FC
1 : 0
Birkirkara
23 Aug
Mosta FC
2 : 1
Balzan FC
17 Aug
Hamrun
0 : 2
Mosta FC
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Hamrun

(Away)
18 Sept
Hamrun
4 : 1
Marsaxlokk
11 Sept
Birzebbuga
0 : 2
Hamrun
06 Sept
Zabbar
1 : 2
Hamrun
29 Aug
Hamrun
1 : 1
Floriana
22 Aug
Birkirkara
1 : 0
Hamrun
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Floriana 11 7 4 0 20:7 25
2 Hamrun 11 6 4 1 16:4 22
3 Marsaxlokk 11 5 4 2 12:12 19
4 Naxxar Lions 11 5 3 3 20:18 18
5 Valletta 11 4 5 2 16:7 17
6 Gzira 11 5 2 4 14:12 17
7 Sliema 11 4 4 3 10:11 16
8 Birkirkara 11 3 4 4 12:12 13
9 Hibernians 11 3 2 6 11:17 11
10 Zabbar 11 2 4 5 13:15 10
11 Tarxien 11 1 3 7 9:21 6
12 Mosta FC 11 1 1 9 7:24 4
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Second stage - Top 6)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Second stage - Play Out)