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Mostaganem vs MC Alger

Algeria Algeria

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Belhamiti Larbi, Mostaganem
Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Gaagaa A.
23'
Benhaoua O.
36'
Sub
Haroun A. In: Toumi M.
Out: Haroun A.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Mostaganem and MC Alger finished 0-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward MC Alger.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Mostaganem
30%
Draws
47%
MC Alger
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: MC Alger

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • MC Alger carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives MC Alger a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and MC Alger have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 79.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Mostaganem Clean Sheet 15%
MC Alger Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mostaganem MC Alger
Matches Played 29 37
Wins 5 23
Draws 5 5
Losses 19 9
Goals Scored 0.66 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.86 0.7
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 1.54
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Ligue 1
Mostaganem vs MC Alger
0:5
Oct 4, 2025 Ligue 1
MC Alger vs Mostaganem
1:0
Jun 12, 2025 Ligue 1
MC Alger vs Mostaganem
5:2
Feb 2, 2025 Ligue 1
Mostaganem vs MC Alger
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mostaganem Compare

Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.42

MC Alger Compare

Top Goalscorer Bangoura M.
4 Goals
Assists Leader Menezla A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.4
Avg xA / game 0.86

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mostaganem 10 / 100
MC Alger 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mostaganem MC Alger

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MC Alger Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.75 goals.

Recent resilience: Mostaganem stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Mostaganem's goal record stands at 41% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

MC Alger's defensive record shows goals conceded in 46% of 37 matches.

Scoring Trends

Mostaganem VS MC Alger
0.71 Goals Scored 1.38
1.71 Goals Conceded 1
71% Over 1.5 88%
57% Over 2.5 25%
29% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mostaganem

(Home)
26 Sept
Mostaganem
1 : 0
Hussein Dey
19 Sept
Mostaganem
1 : 2
USM Blida
05 Jun
Mostaganem
2 : 2
El Bayadh
19 May
ES Ben Aknoun
3 : 0
Mostaganem
12 May
USM Alger
1 : 1
Mostaganem
Page 1 of 6

MC Alger

(Away)
18 Sept
MC Alger
2 : 0
Rouisset
12 Sept
MC Alger
5 : 0
Nigelec
06 Sept
Nigelec
0 : 0
MC Alger
03 Aug
Al Shabab
3 : 1
MC Alger
29 Jul
Al Hilal
0 : 2
MC Alger
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 MC Alger 30 20 5 5 41:18 65
2 Saoura 30 16 7 7 40:26 55
3 CR Belouizdad 30 14 11 5 47:24 53
4 Oran 30 14 7 9 36:31 49
5 Kabylie 30 11 12 7 40:31 45
6 Olympique Akbou 30 12 9 9 34:31 45
7 Khenchela 30 12 8 10 37:37 44
8 ES Ben Aknoun 30 11 10 9 41:39 43
9 Constantine 30 11 10 9 35:30 43
10 USM Alger 30 8 15 7 34:29 39
11 ES Setif 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
12 Rouisset 30 9 9 12 30:35 36
13 ASO Chlef 30 9 7 14 26:31 34
14 Paradou 30 7 3 20 35:54 24
15 Mostaganem 30 4 7 19 18:52 19
16 El Bayadh 30 2 11 17 17:40 17
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2025/2026 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)