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Motagua vs FAS

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Central American Cup Estadio Nacional Chelato Ucles, Tegucigalpa
Motagua Logo

Motagua

1 - 0
FT
FAS Logo

FAS

Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Sub
Bonilla N. In: Diaz W.
Out: Bonilla N.
58'
Sub
Melendez D. In: De Olivera R.
Out: Melendez D.
62' Event
De Olivera R.
Assist: Serrano J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Motagua
30%
Draws
39%
FAS
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: FAS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • FAS have won more games recently than Motagua.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • FAS arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Motagua, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Motagua Clean Sheet 68%
FAS Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Motagua FAS
Matches Played 31 27
Wins 14 16
Draws 9 6
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 1.48 2.04
Goals Conceded 0.87 0.85
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 7, 2026 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Motagua vs FAS
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Motagua Compare

Top Goalscorer De Olivera R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

FAS Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Motagua 41 / 100
FAS 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Motagua FAS

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Motagua Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Motagua scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

FAS has conceded goals in 67% of their last 27 outings.

Motagua has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Motagua VS FAS
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Motagua

(Home)
20 Sept
Real Espana
1 : 0
Motagua
17 Sept
Alianza FC
0 : 0
Motagua
13 Sept
Motagua
1 : 0
Genesis FC
10 Sept
Motagua
3 : 0
Alianza FC
05 Sept
Atletico Independiente
0 : 0
Motagua
Page 1 of 7

FAS

(Away)
19 Sept
Cacahuatique
0 : 2
FAS
17 Sept
Inter Santa Tecla
2 : 2
FAS
05 Sept
Fuerte San Francisco
0 : 1
FAS
30 Aug
FAS
3 : 1
Luis Angel Firpo
26 Aug
Cartagines
2 : 0
FAS
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alajuelense 4 3 0 1 7:3 9
2 Luis Angel Firpo 4 2 1 1 7:3 7
3 Plaza Amador 4 2 0 2 10:10 6
4 Xelaju 4 1 1 2 5:7 4
5 Diriangen 4 1 0 3 5:11 3
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alianza FC 4 3 0 1 5:4 9
2 Marathon 4 2 1 1 6:1 7
3 Herediano 4 2 1 1 4:2 7
4 Esteli 4 2 0 2 5:6 6
5 Antigua 4 0 0 4 2:9 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Olimpia 4 4 0 0 9:3 12
2 Saprissa 4 3 0 1 8:4 9
3 Deportivo Mixco 4 2 0 2 6:6 6
4 Alianza 4 1 0 3 3:7 3
5 UMECIT 4 0 0 4 3:9 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cartagines 4 2 2 0 8:2 8
2 Motagua 4 2 2 0 8:2 8
3 Municipal 4 1 3 0 4:3 6
4 FAS 4 1 1 2 5:5 4
5 Verdes 4 0 0 4 1:14 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)