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Motagua vs Juticalpa Prediction & H2H Stats

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Nacional Chelato Ucles, Tegucigalpa
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Lacayo J.
47' Event
Fajardo A.
53' Event
Macias J.

AI Match Summary

Motagua in this Liga Nacional 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Motagua.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Motagua
20%
Draws
34%
Juticalpa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Motagua

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Motagua lately — more wins on the board than Juticalpa.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Motagua taking it.
  • Regular Liga Nacional 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Motagua have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Motagua Clean Sheet 68%
Juticalpa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Motagua Juticalpa
Matches Played 36 30
Wins 19 6
Draws 9 7
Losses 8 17
Goals Scored 1.81 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.83 2.3
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 Liga Nacional
Juticalpa vs Motagua
0:3
Apr 19, 2026 Liga Nacional
Motagua vs Juticalpa
2:1
Feb 25, 2026 Liga Nacional
Juticalpa vs Motagua
1:2
Dec 7, 2025 Liga Nacional
Juticalpa vs Motagua
1:7
Sep 21, 2025 Liga Nacional
Motagua vs Juticalpa
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Motagua Compare

Top Goalscorer Macias J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader John Kleber
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Juticalpa Compare

Top Goalscorer Fajardo A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Motagua 95 / 100
Juticalpa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Motagua Juticalpa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Motagua Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Juticalpa has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Motagua scored in 78% of their last 36 outings.

Motagua has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Motagua VS Juticalpa
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Motagua

(Home)
20 Sept
Real Espana
1 : 0
Motagua
17 Sept
Alianza FC
0 : 0
Motagua
13 Sept
Motagua
1 : 0
Genesis FC
10 Sept
Motagua
3 : 0
Alianza FC
05 Sept
Atletico Independiente
0 : 0
Motagua
Page 1 of 8

Juticalpa

(Away)
21 Sept
Juticalpa
3 : 2
Marathon
14 Sept
Atletico Independiente
2 : 1
Juticalpa
07 Sept
Juticalpa
0 : 3
Genesis FC
29 Aug
Juticalpa
1 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
22 Aug
Estrella
5 : 2
Juticalpa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Espana 20 11 7 2 37:25 40
2 Motagua 20 11 6 3 36:17 39
3 Olimpia 20 11 5 4 35:17 38
4 Olancho 20 8 8 4 28:16 32
5 Marathon 20 7 6 7 23:19 27
6 Genesis FC 20 6 5 9 20:28 23
7 CD Choloma 20 6 5 9 23:32 23
8 Platense 20 5 6 9 26:29 21
9 Lobos UPNFM 20 5 6 9 23:30 21
10 Juticalpa 20 4 6 10 18:41 18
11 Victoria 20 4 4 12 25:40 16
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Triangulares)