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Motherwell vs Celtic

Scotland Scotland

Premiership 2025/2026 Fir Park, Motherwell
Motherwell Logo

Motherwell

2 - 3
FT
Celtic Logo

Celtic

Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Watt E.
41' Event
Maeda D.
58' Event
Nygren B.
Assist: Yang Hyun-Jun
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Premiership 2025/2026 game between Motherwell and Celtic finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Celtic.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Motherwell
15%
Draws
51%
Celtic
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Celtic

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Celtic come out ahead of Motherwell on wins alone.
  • Model gives Celtic a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Celtic have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Motherwell Clean Sheet 12%
Celtic Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Motherwell Celtic
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 10 21
Draws 6 4
Losses 15 6
Goals Scored 1.42 2.1
Goals Conceded 1.58 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2026 Premiership
Motherwell vs Celtic
2:3
Mar 14, 2026 Premiership
Celtic vs Motherwell
3:1
Dec 30, 2025 Premiership
Motherwell vs Celtic
2:0
Oct 5, 2025 Premiership
Celtic vs Motherwell
3:2
Feb 2, 2025 Premiership
Motherwell vs Celtic
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Motherwell Compare

Top Goalscorer Watt E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gordon L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Celtic Compare

Top Goalscorer Maeda D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nygren B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Motherwell 27 / 100
Celtic 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Motherwell Celtic

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Celtic Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Motherwell scored in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: Celtic conceded in 77% of 31 recent games.

Celtic's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Motherwell VS Celtic
1.25 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Motherwell

(Home)
19 Sept
Dundee FC
2 : 1
Motherwell
15 Sept
Motherwell
0 : 4
Aberdeen
05 Sept
Rangers
1 : 0
Motherwell
02 Sept
Motherwell
3 : 0
Dundee Utd
30 Aug
St. Mirren
3 : 3
Motherwell
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Celtic

(Away)
20 Sept
Celtic
0 : 1
Rangers
17 Sept
Celtic
1 : 3
Ferencvaros
13 Sept
Rangers
3 : 0
Celtic
09 Sept
St Johnstone
0 : 1
Celtic
05 Sept
St. Mirren
1 : 2
Celtic
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Celtic 38 26 4 8 73:41 82
2 Hearts 38 24 8 6 67:34 80
3 Rangers 38 20 12 6 76:43 72
4 Motherwell 38 16 13 9 59:36 61
5 Hibernian 38 15 12 11 58:44 57
6 Falkirk 38 14 7 17 50:62 49
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)