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Moto Club vs Chapadinha

Brazil Brazil

Maranhense 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Moto Club play Chapadinha in the Maranhense 2024. Moto Club are favorites here. Recently, Moto Club averaged 1.18 goals scored and 0.94 conceded. Chapadinha averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.76 conceded. In past meetings, Moto Club won 3, Chapadinha won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 3, 2024 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.29 for Moto Club and 0.75 for Chapadinha. This points to a Moto Club double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Moto Club
19%
Draws
20%
Chapadinha
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Moto Club

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

89% / Very High Confidence
  • Moto Club picked up more points recently compared to Chapadinha.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.29 vs 0.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 32%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Moto Club Clean Sheet 27%
Chapadinha Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Moto Club Chapadinha
Matches Played 33 21
Wins 14 4
Draws 11 4
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 1.18 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.76

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 3, 2024 Maranhense
Chapadinha vs Moto Club
0:1
Jan 20, 2024 Maranhense
Moto Club vs Chapadinha
4:2
Feb 5, 2023 Maranhense
Moto Club vs Chapadinha
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Moto Club Compare

Top Goalscorer Geovani
2 Goals
Assists Leader Rodrigues G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Chapadinha Compare

Top Goalscorer Diogo
1 Goals
Assists Leader de Lima J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Moto Club 60 / 100
Chapadinha 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Moto Club Chapadinha

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Moto Club Win (1)
Secondary Pick Moto Club & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.3%
1.89
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +23.2%
3.85
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Moto Club attacking → ← attacking Chapadinha

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Moto Club scored in 76% of their last 33 games.

Chapadinha let in goals in 90% of their last 21 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Moto Club went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Chapadinha lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

53 Points in last 5 16
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Maranhao1494127:931
2Sampaio Correa1484224:1328
3Imperatriz1474317:1225
4Moto Club1445515:2017
5Pinheiro1428420:1914
6Tuntum1454519:2313
7Chapadinha1423911:239
8Cordino EC1414914:287