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Motor Marienberg vs Freital Prediction & H2H Stats

Germany Germany

Oberliga NOFV- Sud 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

81' Event
Weidauer P.
86' Event
Adler J.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Oberliga NOFV- Sud 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Motor Marienberg
35%
Draws
39%
Freital
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Freital

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Freital lately — more wins on the board than Motor Marienberg.
  • Freital are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Oberliga NOFV- Sud 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Motor Marienberg Clean Sheet 20%
Freital Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Motor Marienberg Freital
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 6 18
Draws 4 5
Losses 20 10
Goals Scored 1.1 1.85
Goals Conceded 3.1 1.15
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2024 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
Freital vs Motor Marienberg
1:0
Nov 4, 2023 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
Motor Marienberg vs Freital
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Motor Marienberg Compare

Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Freital Compare

Top Goalscorer Weidauer P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.07
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Motor Marienberg 16 / 100
Freital 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Motor Marienberg Freital

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Freital Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Motor Marienberg scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Freital let in goals in 73% of their last 33 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

Motor Marienberg has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Freital
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 1.38
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Motor Marienberg

(Home)
08 Jun
Motor Marienberg
1 : 1
Einheit Wernigerode
02 Jun
Grimma
6 : 3
Motor Marienberg
18 May
Motor Marienberg
3 : 4
Halberstadt
11 May
Freital
1 : 0
Motor Marienberg
04 May
Motor Marienberg
2 : 1
Bischofswerdaer
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Freital

(Away)
26 Sept
Einheit Wernigerode
3 : 3
Freital
19 Sept
Freital
2 : 2
Auerbach
13 Sept
Einheit Rudolstadt
1 : 1
Freital
29 Aug
Freital
1 : 3
Eilenburg
16 Aug
Freital
4 : 2
1.FC Frankfurt
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bischofswerdaer 30 21 7 2 78:33 70
2 Plauen 30 22 4 4 63:19 70
3 Halberstadt 30 18 6 6 71:45 60
4 Magdeburg II 30 17 4 9 70:43 55
5 Auerbach 30 17 4 9 64:38 55
6 Krieschow 30 14 4 12 59:52 46
7 Sandersdorf 30 13 3 14 49:46 42
8 Freital 30 12 4 14 43:46 40
9 Einheit Wernigerode 30 10 6 14 54:67 36
10 Bautzen 30 9 8 13 45:52 35
11 Einheit Rudolstadt 30 10 4 16 40:53 34
12 Grimma 30 9 5 16 40:63 32
13 Ludwigsfelder 30 8 7 15 39:50 31
14 Halle 30 8 6 16 47:62 30
15 Motor Marienberg 30 6 4 20 33:93 22
16 Arnstadt 30 5 6 19 35:68 21
Promotion - Regionalliga Nordost 2024/2025 (Main)