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Motril vs Atletico de Porcuna

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Motril play Atletico de Porcuna in the Tercera RFEF - Group 9. It looks like a close match. Recently, Motril averaged 1.53 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. Atletico de Porcuna averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, Motril won 3, Atletico de Porcuna won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 10, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Motril and 1.13 for Atletico de Porcuna. This points to a Motril double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Motril
19%
Draws
37%
Atletico de Porcuna
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Motril

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Motril picked up more points recently compared to Atletico de Porcuna.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 46%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Motril Clean Sheet 21%
Atletico de Porcuna Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Motril Atletico de Porcuna
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 13
Draws 12 4
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 1.53 1.27
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Atletico de Porcuna
2:1
Jan 11, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Atletico de Porcuna vs Motril
1:0
May 4, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Atletico de Porcuna vs Motril
0:1
Jan 4, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Atletico de Porcuna
1:4
Feb 19, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Atletico de Porcuna
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Motril Compare

Top Goalscorer Huerta S.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Atletico de Porcuna Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez L. E. M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Motril 44 / 100
Atletico de Porcuna 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Motril Atletico de Porcuna

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Motril or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15%
2.50
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Motril attacking → ← attacking Atletico de Porcuna

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Motril scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Atletico de Porcuna let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Motril went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Atletico de Porcuna lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 43
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Mijas Las Lagunas34199646:2466
2Motril341811555:2965
3Torre del Mar341413737:2655
4Arenas Armilla341591038:2954
5Churriana de la Vega3414101032:4052
6Marbelli341491136:2851
7Ciudad de Torredonjimeno3413111039:3850
8UD San Pedro3413101139:3749
9Atletico de Porcuna341441641:3946
10Huetor Vega341291343:4245
11Granada CF B3410141049:4744
12CD Alhaurino3411101341:4143
13Melilla B349121330:3239
14Mancha349101530:3837
15Huetor Tajar349101540:4437
16Martos349101532:4837
17CD Torreperogil34961924:4533
18El Palo34691928:5327