Sport Picks
Motril vs Atletico de Porcuna
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 
Match Events
17'
17'
Rodriguez L. E. M.
43'
43'
Huerta S.
79'
79'
Huerta S.
AI Match Summary
The Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 game between Motril and Atletico de Porcuna finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Motril.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
28%
30%
42%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Atletico de Porcuna
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
28%
/ Low Confidence
- Atletico de Porcuna carry the better recent record into this one.
- Motril are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Motril Clean Sheet 68%
Atletico de Porcuna Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Motril | Atletico de Porcuna |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 31 |
| Wins | 13 | 14 |
| Draws | 12 | 4 |
| Losses | 7 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.44 | 1.32 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.91 | 1.32 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Atletico de Porcuna
2:1
Jan 11, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Atletico de Porcuna vs Motril
1:0
May 4, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Atletico de Porcuna vs Motril
0:1
Jan 4, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Atletico de Porcuna
1:4
Feb 19, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Atletico de Porcuna
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Motril Compare
Top Goalscorer Huerta S.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Atletico de Porcuna Compare
Top Goalscorer Rodriguez L. E. M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Motril 59 / 100
Atletico de Porcuna 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Motril Atletico de Porcuna
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Motril Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Motril found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (32 games).
Atletico de Porcuna let in goals in 61% of their last 31 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Motril stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Motril VS Atletico de Porcuna
0.63 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Motril
(Home) 20 Sept
Malaga Juniors
1 : 2 Motril
13 Sept
Motril
1 : 1 Torre del Mar
09 Sept
Motril
0 : 2 Recreativo Huelva
05 Sept
Huetor Vega
0 : 0 Motril
07 Jun
Motril
1 : 1 Arenas Armilla
Page 1 of 7
13 Sept
Motril
1 : 1 Torre del Mar
09 Sept
Motril
0 : 2 Recreativo Huelva
07 Jun
Motril
1 : 1 Arenas Armilla
24 May
Motril
0 : 0 Churriana de la Vega
10 May
Motril
2 : 1 Atletico de Porcuna
Page 1 of 4
Atletico de Porcuna
(Away) 20 Sept
Atletico de Porcuna
2 : 1 Granada CF B
12 Sept
Malaga B
6 : 1 Atletico de Porcuna
06 Sept
Atletico de Porcuna
1 : 0 Cantoria
10 May
Motril
2 : 1 Atletico de Porcuna
03 May
Atletico de Porcuna
1 : 0 Torre del Mar
Page 1 of 7
12 Sept
Malaga B
6 : 1 Atletico de Porcuna
10 May
Motril
2 : 1 Atletico de Porcuna
25 Apr
El Palo
1 : 2 Atletico de Porcuna
12 Apr
CD Alhaurino
3 : 0 Atletico de Porcuna
29 Mar
Granada CF B
3 : 1 Atletico de Porcuna
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 46:24 | 66 |
| 2 | Motril | 34 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 55:29 | 65 |
| 3 | Torre del Mar | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 37:26 | 55 |
| 4 | Arenas Armilla | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 38:29 | 54 |
| 5 | Churriana de la Vega | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 32:40 | 52 |
| 6 | Marbelli | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 36:28 | 51 |
| 7 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 39:38 | 50 |
| 8 | UD San Pedro | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 39:37 | 49 |
| 9 | Atletico de Porcuna | 34 | 14 | 4 | 16 | 41:39 | 46 |
| 10 | Huetor Vega | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 43:42 | 45 |
| 11 | Granada CF B | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 49:47 | 44 |
| 12 | CD Alhaurino | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 41:41 | 43 |
| 13 | Melilla B | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 30:32 | 39 |
| 14 | Mancha | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 30:38 | 37 |
| 15 | Huetor Tajar | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 40:44 | 37 |
| 16 | Martos | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 32:48 | 37 |
| 17 | CD Torreperogil | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 24:45 | 33 |
| 18 | El Palo | 34 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 28:53 | 27 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
