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Motril vs Churriana de la Vega

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Lopez A.
77' Event
Lopez A.
(Penalty)
83' Event
Lopez A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 9 game between Motril and Churriana de la Vega finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Motril.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Motril
39%
Draws
31%
Churriana de la Vega
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Motril carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Motril Clean Sheet 68%
Churriana de la Vega Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Motril Churriana de la Vega
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 11
Draws 12 11
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 1.13 1.25
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Churriana de la Vega
0:0
May 17, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Churriana de la Vega vs Motril
1:1
Feb 11, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Churriana de la Vega
4:0
Sep 28, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Churriana de la Vega vs Motril
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Motril Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Muniz A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Churriana de la Vega Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Motril 41 / 100
Churriana de la Vega 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Motril Churriana de la Vega

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Motril scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Churriana de la Vega's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.75 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Motril remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Motril VS Churriana de la Vega
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Motril

(Home)
07 Jun
Motril
1 : 1
Arenas Armilla
31 May
Arenas Armilla
1 : 0
Motril
24 May
Motril
0 : 0
Churriana de la Vega
17 May
Churriana de la Vega
1 : 1
Motril
10 May
Motril
2 : 1
Atletico de Porcuna
Page 1 of 6

Churriana de la Vega

(Away)
24 May
Motril
0 : 0
Churriana de la Vega
17 May
Churriana de la Vega
1 : 1
Motril
10 May
El Palo
0 : 2
Churriana de la Vega
03 May
Churriana de la Vega
1 : 1
UD San Pedro
26 Apr
CD Alhaurino
4 : 0
Churriana de la Vega
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Mijas Las Lagunas34199646:2466
2Motril341811555:2965
3Torre del Mar341413737:2655
4Arenas Armilla341591038:2954
5Churriana de la Vega3414101032:4052
6Marbelli341491136:2851
7Ciudad de Torredonjimeno3413111039:3850
8UD San Pedro3413101139:3749
9Atletico de Porcuna341441641:3946
10Huetor Vega341291343:4245
11Granada CF B3410141049:4744
12CD Alhaurino3411101341:4143
13Melilla B349121330:3239
14Mancha349101530:3837
15Huetor Tajar349101540:4437
16Martos349101532:4837
17CD Torreperogil34961924:4533
18El Palo34691928:5327
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 (Play Offs)