Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mount Pleasant vs Tivoli

Jamaica Jamaica

Premier League 2025/2026 Draxhall Sports Complex, Runaway Bay
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Garnett T.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Mount Pleasant and Tivoli finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tivoli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Mount Pleasant
20%
Draws
29%
Tivoli
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mount Pleasant

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mount Pleasant come out ahead of Tivoli on wins alone.
  • 51% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Mount Pleasant Clean Sheet 68%
Tivoli Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mount Pleasant Tivoli
Matches Played 41 31
Wins 21 9
Draws 10 9
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.73 1.19
Goals Conceded 0.98 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 0.90
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Premier League
Mount Pleasant vs Tivoli
0:1
Mar 4, 2026 Premier League
Tivoli vs Mount Pleasant
1:1
Dec 11, 2025 Premier League
Mount Pleasant vs Tivoli
5:0
Mar 30, 2025 Premier League
Mount Pleasant vs Tivoli
0:0
Jan 26, 2025 Premier League
Tivoli vs Mount Pleasant
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mount Pleasant Compare

Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71

Tivoli Compare

Top Goalscorer Garnett T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.5

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mount Pleasant 41 / 100
Tivoli 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mount Pleasant Tivoli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mount Pleasant Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mount Pleasant's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 40 recent games.

Defensive concern: Tivoli conceded in 71% of 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Mount Pleasant went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mount Pleasant VS Tivoli
1.63 Goals Scored 0.8
1 Goals Conceded 1.2
50% Over 1.5 80%
50% Over 2.5 40%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mount Pleasant

(Home)
20 Sept
Mount Pleasant
0 : 1
Racing United
17 Sept
Mount Pleasant
1 : 0
Cavalier
13 Sept
Tru-Juice FC
4 : 0
Mount Pleasant
09 Sept
Portmore
0 : 1
Mount Pleasant
03 Sept
Salcedo
1 : 1
Mount Pleasant
Page 1 of 9

Tivoli

(Away)
20 Sept
Treasure Beach
1 : 1
Tivoli
13 Sept
Tivoli
3 : 0
Humble Lions
06 May
Portmore
3 : 0
Tivoli
03 May
Tivoli
0 : 2
Cavalier
30 Apr
Treasure Beach
4 : 2
Tivoli
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mount Pleasant 39 20 14 5 69:25 74
2 Montego Bay 39 21 8 10 79:45 71
3 Portmore 39 17 15 7 54:35 66
4 Waterhouse 39 19 8 12 51:32 65
5 Cavalier 39 19 4 16 57:41 61
6 Racing United 39 14 18 7 53:34 60
7 Arnett Gardens 39 17 7 15 68:46 58
8 Chapelton 39 14 7 18 42:57 49
9 FC Dunbeholden 39 13 9 17 40:53 48
10 Tivoli 39 11 11 17 37:58 44
11 Treasure Beach 39 10 13 16 43:59 43
12 Molynes United 39 9 15 15 45:47 42
13 Harbour View 39 9 12 18 53:73 39
14 Spanish Town Police 39 7 5 27 25:111 26
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)