Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group E 2017/2018

Lusitano VRSA

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Moura AC play Lusitano VRSA in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group E 2017/2018. It looks like a close match. Recently, Moura AC averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.87 conceded. Lusitano VRSA averaged 0.77 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. In past meetings, Moura AC won 1, Lusitano VRSA won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 8, 2018 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.35 for Moura AC and 1.44 for Lusitano VRSA. This points to a Moura AC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%

Moura AC

26%

Draws

30%

Lusitano VRSA

Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Moura AC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence

Moura AC picked up more points recently compared to Lusitano VRSA.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.35 vs 1.44 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 73%

Over 2.5 Goals 50%

Over 3.5 Goals 30%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%

Moura AC Clean Sheet 16%

Lusitano VRSA Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 66%

Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Moura AC	Lusitano VRSA
Matches Played	39	30
Wins	12	5
Draws	7	7
Losses	20	18
Goals Scored	1.13	0.77
Goals Conceded	1.87	1.7

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 8, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E

Moura AC vs Lusitano VRSA

Possession: 53% - 43% Cards: 3 - 3

2:0

Dec 10, 2017 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E

Lusitano VRSA vs Moura AC

Possession: 58% - 51% Cards: 2 - 2

0:0

Apr 15, 2017 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A

Moura AC vs Lusitano VRSA

Possession: 48% - 53% Cards: 1 - 3

0:1

Feb 26, 2017 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A

Lusitano VRSA vs Moura AC

Possession: 50% - 49% Cards: 1 - 1

0:0

Jan 29, 2017 Campeonato de Portugal - Group H

Moura AC vs Lusitano VRSA

Possession: 47% - 44% Cards: 2 - 3

1:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Moura AC 43 / 100

Lusitano VRSA 29 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Moura AC Lusitano VRSA

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Moura AC or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +22.3%

2.78

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.5%

2.27

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Moura AC attacking → ← attacking Lusitano VRSA

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Moura AC scored in 67% of their last 39 games.

Lusitano VRSA let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Moura AC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Lusitano VRSA lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 22

1.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SC Farense	30	26	3	1	66:12	81
2	Oriental	30	19	6	5	40:19	63
3	Olhanense	30	18	4	8	42:30	58
4	Casa Pia	30	16	5	9	50:31	53
5	Pinhalnovense	30	13	7	10	43:29	46
6	Louletano	30	13	5	12	43:39	44
7	Armacenenses	30	11	11	8	31:29	44
8	Moura AC	30	12	5	13	41:38	41
9	Montijo	30	9	10	11	40:44	37
10	Sporting Ideal	30	10	5	15	29:38	35
11	Estrela Vendas Novas	30	8	8	14	32:54	32
12	Operario	30	7	9	14	35:46	30
13	Almancilense	30	7	7	16	33:50	28
14	Castrense	30	5	11	14	32:47	26
15	Lusitano VRSA	30	6	7	17	24:49	25
16	Moncarapachense	30	6	5	19	27:53	23