Sport Picks

Mozambique vs Guinea Bissau Prediction & H2H Stats

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Estádio do Zimpeto, Maputo

Mozambique

2 - 1

Guinea Bissau

Our Tip

Match Events

Guimaraes R.

24'

Balde M.

Assist: Nanu

38'

Guimaraes R.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Mozambique advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%

Mozambique

20%

Draws

51%

Guinea Bissau

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Guinea Bissau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Mozambique come out ahead of Guinea Bissau on wins alone.
Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
Mozambique have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Mozambique, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 65%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%

Mozambique Clean Sheet 17%

Guinea Bissau Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mozambique	Guinea Bissau
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	9	6
Draws	6	6
Losses	15	17
Goals Scored	1.07	0.86
Goals Conceded	1.7	1.55
Expected Goals (xG)	1.15	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 19, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Guinea Bissau vs Mozambique

1:2

Sep 10, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Mozambique vs Guinea Bissau

2:1

Mar 23, 2019 Africa Cup of Nations

Guinea Bissau vs Mozambique

2:2

Sep 8, 2018 Africa Cup of Nations

Mozambique vs Guinea Bissau

2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mozambique Compare

Top Goalscorer Guimaraes R.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Macamo E.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.88

Avg xA / game 0.57

Guinea Bissau Compare

Top Goalscorer Balde M.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mozambique 31 / 100

Guinea Bissau 41 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mozambique Guinea Bissau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guinea Bissau Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Mozambique scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Guinea Bissau let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Mozambique has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mozambique VS Guinea Bissau

1.13 Goals Scored 1

1.75 Goals Conceded 1.17

63% Over 1.5 67%

63% Over 2.5 33%

38% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Mozambique

(Home)

29 Sept

Mozambique

4 : 1

Sudan

25 Sept

Mozambique

1 : 1

Senegal

09 Jun

Indonesia

1 : 0

Mozambique

07 Jun

Oman

4 : 1

Mozambique

05 Jan

Nigeria

4 : 0

Mozambique

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Guinea Bissau

(Away)

29 Sept

Guinea Bissau

3 : 0

Nigeria

25 Sept

Tanzania

0 : 2

Guinea Bissau

31 Mar

Burkina Faso

1 : 1

Guinea Bissau

28 Mar

Burkina Faso

5 : 0

Guinea Bissau

12 Oct

Egypt

1 : 0

Guinea Bissau

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