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Msida vs Tarxien

Malta Malta

Challenge League 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

50' Event
Aquilina G.
67' Event
Cloth J.

AI Match Summary

The Challenge League 2023/2024 game between Msida and Tarxien finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tarxien.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

11%
Msida
20%
Draws
69%
Tarxien
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tarxien

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Msida haven't matched Tarxien's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Tarxien's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Challenge League 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Tarxien here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Msida Clean Sheet 20%
Tarxien Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Msida Tarxien
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 3 9
Draws 2 8
Losses 25 15
Goals Scored 0.83 1.34
Goals Conceded 2.43 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.54 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 14, 2024 Challenge League
Tarxien vs Msida
3:1
Dec 10, 2023 Challenge League
Msida vs Tarxien
0:2
Jan 17, 2010 Premier League
Tarxien vs Msida
3:1
Oct 17, 2009 Premier League
Msida vs Tarxien
1:1
May 8, 2009 Premier League
Msida vs Tarxien
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Msida Compare

Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.77

Tarxien Compare

Top Goalscorer Aquilina G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cloth J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.48

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Msida 10 / 100
Tarxien 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Msida Tarxien

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tarxien Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tarxien has conceded goals in 88% of their last 32 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Msida found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

Msida has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Tarxien
0 Goals Scored 0.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.88
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Msida

(Home)
26 Apr
Msida
1 : 1
Attard
21 Apr
Msida
2 : 2
Fgura
14 Apr
Tarxien
3 : 1
Msida
07 Apr
Msida
1 : 3
St. Andrews
17 Mar
Zebbug
6 : 0
Msida
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Tarxien

(Away)
20 Sept
Tarxien
3 : 1
Attard
13 Sept
Mgarr
1 : 3
Tarxien
10 May
Zabbar
2 : 0
Tarxien
05 May
Zabbar
2 : 3
Tarxien
30 Apr
Tarxien
2 : 1
Sliema
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Zabbar 15 10 3 2 21:9 33
2 Melita 15 9 4 2 32:21 31
3 Senglea 15 8 5 2 20:9 29
4 Marsa 15 8 4 3 32:17 28
5 Pieta 15 8 3 4 23:13 27
6 Zurrieq 15 8 3 4 18:17 27
7 Fgura 15 8 2 5 32:25 26
8 Lija 15 6 4 5 26:24 22
9 Swieqi 15 5 6 4 18:16 21
10 Tarxien 15 3 8 4 16:14 17
11 Zejtun 15 4 5 6 17:18 17
12 Luqa 15 4 4 7 21:24 16
13 St. Andrews 15 3 2 10 14:28 11
14 Zebbug 15 2 4 9 11:27 10
15 Attard 15 1 5 9 14:33 8
16 Msida 15 2 0 13 9:29 6
Promotion - Challenge League 2023/2024 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Challenge League 2023/2024 (Relegation Group)