Sport Picks

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Mtibwa Sugar vs Lipuli

Tanzania Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara 2019/2020
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Mwinyi E.

AI Match Summary

The Ligi Kuu Bara 2019/2020 game between Mtibwa Sugar and Lipuli finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lipuli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Mtibwa Sugar
15%
Draws
85%
Lipuli
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lipuli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Mtibwa Sugar haven't matched Lipuli's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Lipuli's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Ligi Kuu Bara 2019/2020 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Lipuli have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Mtibwa Sugar Clean Sheet 18%
Lipuli Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mtibwa Sugar Lipuli
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 6 9
Draws 9 5
Losses 16 16
Goals Scored 0.81 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.58 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2020 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mtibwa Sugar vs Lipuli
0:1
Aug 25, 2019 Ligi Kuu Bara
Lipuli vs Mtibwa Sugar
3:1
Jan 19, 2019 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mtibwa Sugar vs Lipuli
0:1
Sep 15, 2018 Ligi Kuu Bara
Lipuli vs Mtibwa Sugar
0:0
May 16, 2018 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mtibwa Sugar vs Lipuli
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mtibwa Sugar Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Lipuli Compare

Top Goalscorer Mwinyi E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mtibwa Sugar 15 / 100
Lipuli 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mtibwa Sugar Lipuli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lipuli Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lipuli's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Mtibwa Sugar scored in 55% of their last 31 games.

Away concern: Lipuli has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mtibwa Sugar VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
1.63 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mtibwa Sugar

(Home)
30 Jun
Namungo
2 : 1
Mtibwa Sugar
27 Jun
Tanzania Prisons
2 : 1
Mtibwa Sugar
24 Jun
Mtibwa Sugar
0 : 3
Simba
18 Jun
Pamba
4 : 0
Mtibwa Sugar
13 Jun
Mbeya City
1 : 0
Mtibwa Sugar
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Lipuli

(Away)
26 Jul
Lipuli
0 : 1
Young Africans
23 Jul
Lipuli
1 : 0
Ruvu Shooting
19 Jul
Lipuli
1 : 1
Azam
14 Jul
Lipuli
2 : 0
Kinondoni MC
09 Jul
Alliance
2 : 0
Lipuli
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Simba 38 27 7 4 78:21 88
2 Young Africans 38 19 15 4 45:28 72
3 Azam 38 20 10 8 52:26 70
4 Namungo 38 17 13 8 46:37 64
5 Polisi Tanzania 38 15 10 13 37:35 55
6 JKT Tanzania 38 13 15 10 34:32 54
7 Coastal Union 38 14 11 13 33:30 53
8 Kagera Sugar 38 15 7 16 44:41 52
9 Biashara Mara United 38 12 14 12 29:27 50
10 Tanzania Prisons 38 10 19 9 35:30 49
11 Mwadui 38 12 11 15 39:45 47
12 Ruvu Shooting 38 12 11 15 34:42 47
13 Kinondoni MC 38 13 7 18 35:47 46
14 Mtibwa Sugar 38 11 12 15 30:34 45
15 Mbeya City 38 12 9 17 33:42 45
16 Mbao 38 12 9 17 33:43 45
17 Alliance 38 11 12 15 36:48 45
18 Lipuli 38 12 8 18 43:51 44
19 Ndanda 38 9 14 15 28:35 41
20 Singida United 38 4 6 28 23:73 18
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2020/2021 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2020/2021 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2019/2020 (Relegation)