Sport Picks
Mtibwa Sugar vs Simba
Tanzania
Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 Jamhuri Stadium, Dodoma 
Match Events
9'
9'
De Reuck R.
(Penalty)
78'
78'
Mwalimu S.
90'
90'
Oura A. A.
Assist: Mpanzu E.
AI Match Summary
The Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 game between Mtibwa Sugar and Simba finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Simba.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
0%
15%
85%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Simba
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Mtibwa Sugar haven't matched Simba's recent run of results.
- Model gives Simba a 85% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Simba have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Mtibwa Sugar Clean Sheet 10%
Simba Clean Sheet 20%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mtibwa Sugar | Simba |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 6 | 25 |
| Draws | 9 | 5 |
| Losses | 15 | 1 |
| Goals Scored | 0.83 | 1.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.6 | 0.39 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.32 | 2.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 24, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mtibwa Sugar vs Simba
0:3
Jan 18, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Simba vs Mtibwa Sugar
1:1
May 3, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara
Simba vs Mtibwa Sugar
2:0
Aug 17, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mtibwa Sugar vs Simba
2:4
Mar 11, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mtibwa Sugar vs Simba
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Mtibwa Sugar Compare
Avg xG / game 0.25
Avg xA / game 0.16
Simba Compare
Top Goalscorer Mwalimu S.
1 Goals Assists Leader Oura A. A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Mtibwa Sugar 10 / 100
Simba 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Mtibwa Sugar Simba
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Simba Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 3.20 goals.
Mtibwa Sugar's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Defensive concern: Simba conceded in 35% of 31 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Mtibwa Sugar VS Simba
0.5 Goals Scored 1.63
2.75 Goals Conceded 0.13
100% Over 1.5 50%
100% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Mtibwa Sugar
(Home) 30 Jun
Namungo
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
27 Jun
Tanzania Prisons
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
24 Jun
Mtibwa Sugar
0 : 3 Simba
18 Jun
Pamba
4 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
13 Jun
Mbeya City
1 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
Page 1 of 6
24 Jun
Mtibwa Sugar
0 : 3 Simba
24 May
Mtibwa Sugar
2 : 2 JKT Tanzania
14 May
Mtibwa Sugar
4 : 3 Kinondoni MC
06 May
Mtibwa Sugar
0 : 1 Dodoma Jiji
02 May
Mtibwa Sugar
0 : 3 Azam
Page 1 of 3
Simba
(Away) 16 Sept
Azam
0 : 2 Simba
13 Sept
Simba
6 : 1 Mighty Wanderers FC
06 Sept
Mighty Wanderers FC
0 : 1 Simba
31 Aug
Simba
2 : 0 Geita Gold
27 Aug
Simba
1 : 0 Coastal Union
Page 1 of 7
16 Sept
Azam
0 : 2 Simba
06 Sept
Mighty Wanderers FC
0 : 1 Simba
22 Aug
Singida Black Stars
1 : 2 Simba
19 Aug
Pamba
1 : 2 Simba
16 Aug
Kagera Sugar
0 : 2 Simba
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 30 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 71:9 | 75 |
| 2 | Simba | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 54:11 | 73 |
| 3 | Azam | 30 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 46:12 | 64 |
| 4 | Singida Black Stars | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 47:35 | 50 |
| 5 | TRA United | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 33:28 | 43 |
| 6 | JKT Tanzania | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 30:33 | 42 |
| 7 | Pamba | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 32:35 | 36 |
| 8 | Coastal Union | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 31:37 | 36 |
| 9 | Dodoma Jiji | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 25:36 | 35 |
| 10 | Namungo | 30 | 7 | 13 | 10 | 25:32 | 34 |
| 11 | Mashujaa | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 15:27 | 33 |
| 12 | Fountain Gate | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 25:44 | 33 |
| 13 | Tanzania Prisons | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 23:41 | 32 |
| 14 | Mbeya City | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 24:41 | 30 |
| 15 | Mtibwa Sugar | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 25:48 | 27 |
| 16 | Kinondoni MC | 30 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 16:53 | 9 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 (Relegation)
