Sport Picks

Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara Jamhuri Stadium

Tanzania Prisons

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mtibwa Sugar play Tanzania Prisons in the Ligi Kuu Bara. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mtibwa Sugar averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Tanzania Prisons averaged 0.79 goals scored and 1.41 conceded. In past meetings, Mtibwa Sugar won 2, Tanzania Prisons won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 27, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Mtibwa Sugar and 1.94 for Tanzania Prisons. This points to a Tanzania Prisons double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Mtibwa Sugar

23%

Draws

41%

Tanzania Prisons

Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Tanzania Prisons

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Mtibwa Sugar picked up more points recently compared to Tanzania Prisons.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.94 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 67%

Over 2.5 Goals 52%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%

Mtibwa Sugar Clean Sheet 10%

Tanzania Prisons Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 60%

Second Half Goal 64%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mtibwa Sugar	Tanzania Prisons
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	6	9
Draws	9	5
Losses	15	15
Goals Scored	0.83	0.79
Goals Conceded	1.6	1.41
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.50	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 27, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara

Tanzania Prisons vs Mtibwa Sugar

Possession: 41% - 51% Cards: 2 - 0

2:1

Feb 2, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mtibwa Sugar vs Tanzania Prisons

Possession: 57% - 59% Cards: 0 - 1

2:1

Mar 9, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mtibwa Sugar vs Tanzania Prisons

Possession: 47% - 48% Cards: 4 - 4

2:1

Oct 8, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara

Tanzania Prisons vs Mtibwa Sugar

Possession: 60% - 43% Cards: 4 - 1

3:2

Feb 3, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara

Tanzania Prisons vs Mtibwa Sugar

Possession: 43% - 49% Cards: 1 - 4

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mtibwa Sugar Compare

Top Goalscorer Mhesa I.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Tanzania Prisons Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mtibwa Sugar 34 / 100

Tanzania Prisons 39 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mtibwa Sugar Tanzania Prisons

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Tanzania Prisons or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +28.5%

3.57

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.8%

2.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mtibwa Sugar attacking → ← attacking Tanzania Prisons

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mtibwa Sugar scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Tanzania Prisons let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Mtibwa Sugar went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Tanzania Prisons lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 32

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.38

2.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Young Africans	30	23	6	1	71:9	75
2	Simba	30	22	7	1	54:11	73
3	Azam	30	18	10	2	46:12	64
4	Singida Black Stars	30	15	5	10	47:35	50
5	TRA United	30	11	10	9	33:28	43
6	JKT Tanzania	30	10	12	8	30:33	42
7	Pamba	30	9	9	12	32:35	36
8	Coastal Union	30	9	9	12	31:37	36
9	Dodoma Jiji	30	8	11	11	25:36	35
10	Namungo	30	7	13	10	25:32	34
11	Mashujaa	30	7	12	11	15:27	33
12	Fountain Gate	30	9	6	15	25:44	33
13	Tanzania Prisons	30	9	5	16	23:41	32
14	Mbeya City	30	7	9	14	24:41	30
15	Mtibwa Sugar	30	6	9	15	25:48	27
16	Kinondoni MC	30	2	3	25	16:53	9