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Muang Thong Utd vs Pathum United

Thailand Thailand

Thai League 1 Thunderdome Stadium
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Match Events

21' Event
Sareepim S.
Assist: Choolthong W.
46'
Sub
Ahannach A. In: Tasa K.
Out: Ahannach A.
46'
Sub
Jamnongwat W. In: Takagi Y.
Out: Jamnongwat W.

AI Match Summary

Muang Thong Utd host Pathum United in the Thai League 1. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Muang Thong Utd at 1 goals for, 0.88 against; Pathum United at 1.5 for, 0.75 against. Head-to-head, Muang Thong Utd have won 0 to Pathum United's 3, with 2 draws. They last met on May 1, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (0.88 - 1.19) back Pathum United to edge this. Pathum United in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Muang Thong Utd
6%
Draws
90%
Pathum United
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Pathum United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Pathum United has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Muang Thong Utd.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Pathum United.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Thai League 1 provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Muang Thong Utd Clean Sheet 20%
Pathum United Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Muang Thong Utd Pathum United
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 6 18
Draws 7 8
Losses 17 7
Goals Scored 1 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2026 Thai League 1
Muang Thong Utd vs Pathum United
1:1
Jan 21, 2026 League Cup
Muang Thong Utd vs Pathum United
0:2
Dec 14, 2025 Thai League 1
Pathum United vs Muang Thong Utd
3:0
Mar 1, 2025 Thai League 1
Pathum United vs Muang Thong Utd
2:0
Oct 19, 2024 Thai League 1
Muang Thong Utd vs Pathum United
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Muang Thong Utd Compare

Top Goalscorer Khamyok K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Pathum United Compare

Top Goalscorer Sareepim S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Muang Thong Utd 10 / 100
Pathum United 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Muang Thong Utd Pathum United

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAT Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Muang Thong Utd scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Pathum United let in goals in 52% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Muang Thong Utd went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Pathum United lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Muang Thong Utd VS Pathum United
1 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Buriram United F.C.30224476:3170
2Port MTI FC30186659:2360
3Ratchaburi30185755:3059
4Pathum United301410645:2952
5Bangkok Utd301311643:3250
6Prachuap301112739:3745
7Chiangrai Utd30913836:3740
8Chonburi301091138:4139
9Rayong FC309101144:4937
10Ayutthaya United30881434:5032
11Uthai Thani307101339:4431
12Lamphun Warrior30417935:4729
13Sukhothai306101423:4228
14Muang Thong Utd30681627:5226
15Nakhon Ratchasima FC30661820:4424
16Kanchanaburi304111529:5423