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Municipal vs Motagua - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Central American Cup Estadio Manuel Felipe Carrera, Guatemala City
Municipal Logo

Municipal

1 - 1
FT
Motagua Logo

Motagua

Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
De Olivera R.
Assist: Batiz J.
46'
Sub
Saravia R. In: Altan P.
Out: Saravia R.
46'
Sub
Vega L. In: Cacho P.
Out: Vega L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. The second leg ended 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Municipal
35%
Draws
41%
Motagua
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Motagua

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Municipal haven't matched Motagua's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Motagua arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Municipal, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Municipal Clean Sheet 21%
Motagua Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Municipal Motagua
Matches Played 28 34
Wins 17 20
Draws 8 8
Losses 3 6
Goals Scored 1.68 1.82
Goals Conceded 0.61 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 26, 2026 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Municipal vs Motagua
1:1
Aug 5, 2011 CONCACAF Champions Cup
Municipal vs Motagua
2:0
Jul 29, 2011 CONCACAF Champions Cup
Motagua vs Municipal
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Municipal Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Motagua Compare

Top Goalscorer De Olivera R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Municipal 37 / 100
Motagua 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Municipal Motagua

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Motagua Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Municipal found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (28 games).

Motagua let in goals in 62% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 2.67 goals.

Municipal went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Municipal VS Motagua
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 0.38
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Municipal

(Home)
19 Oct
Municipal
1 : 1
Guastatoya
15 Oct
Coban Imperial
2 : 1
Municipal
11 Oct
Municipal
1 : 1
Marquense
09 Oct
Antigua
1 : 1
Municipal
25 Sept
Municipal
3 : 0
Suchitepequez
Page 1 of 6

Motagua

(Away)
17 Oct
Platense
0 : 2
Motagua
10 Oct
Motagua
2 : 1
CD Choloma
20 Sept
Real Espana
1 : 0
Motagua
17 Sept
Alianza FC
0 : 0
Motagua
13 Sept
Motagua
1 : 0
Genesis FC
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alajuelense 4 3 0 1 7:3 9
2 Luis Angel Firpo 4 2 1 1 7:3 7
3 Plaza Amador 4 2 0 2 10:10 6
4 Xelaju 4 1 1 2 5:7 4
5 Diriangen 4 1 0 3 5:11 3
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alianza FC 4 3 0 1 5:4 9
2 Marathon 4 2 1 1 6:1 7
3 Herediano 4 2 1 1 4:2 7
4 Esteli 4 2 0 2 5:6 6
5 Antigua 4 0 0 4 2:9 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Olimpia 4 4 0 0 9:3 12
2 Saprissa 4 3 0 1 8:4 9
3 Deportivo Mixco 4 2 0 2 6:6 6
4 Alianza 4 1 0 3 3:7 3
5 UMECIT 4 0 0 4 3:9 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cartagines 4 2 2 0 8:2 8
2 Motagua 4 2 2 0 8:2 8
3 Municipal 4 1 3 0 4:3 6
4 FAS 4 1 1 2 5:5 4
5 Verdes 4 0 0 4 1:14 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)