Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mura vs Celje

Slovenia Slovenia

Prva liga Mestni stadion Fazanerija, Murska Sobota
Sun, Sep 20, 2026
VS
03:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mura host Celje in the Prva liga. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Celje have shipped 1.19 goals a game lately, while Mura have conceded 1.96 and scored 1.08. Past meetings favor Celje slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 17, 2026, ending 2:2. xG projections (0.79 - 1.63) back Celje to edge this. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Mura
15%
Draws
36%
Celje
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mura

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Celje come out ahead of Mura on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Mura Clean Sheet 14%
Celje Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mura Celje
Matches Played 26 31
Wins 7 15
Draws 5 6
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 1.08 1.77
Goals Conceded 1.96 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 0.79 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 17, 2026 Prva liga
Celje vs Mura
2:2
Apr 19, 2026 Prva liga
Mura vs Celje
0:2
Feb 14, 2026 Prva liga
Celje vs Mura
5:1
Oct 26, 2025 Prva liga
Mura vs Celje
2:1
Aug 10, 2025 Prva liga
Celje vs Mura
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mura 31 / 100
Celje 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mura Celje

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Mura scored in 69% of their last 26 outings.

Celje let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.

Difficult form: Celje registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mura VS Celje
0.71 Goals Scored 1.25
2 Goals Conceded 0.88
71% Over 1.5 75%
43% Over 2.5 38%
29% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mura

(Home)
13 Sept
Mura
1 : 6
Aluminij
06 Sept
Maribor
1 : 1
Mura
29 Aug
Bravo
2 : 0
Mura
22 Aug
Mura
0 : 1
Koper
16 Aug
Grosuplje
1 : 2
Mura
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Celje

(Away)
16 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 0
Celje
12 Sept
Bravo
2 : 1
Celje
06 Sept
Celje
0 : 1
Koper
02 Sept
Aluminij
0 : 2
Celje
30 Aug
Grosuplje
4 : 1
Celje
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maribor 9 5 4 0 17:6 19
2 Bravo 9 4 3 2 10:9 15
3 Koper 9 4 3 2 9:8 15
4 O. Ljubljana 9 4 2 3 9:6 14
5 Nafta 9 4 1 4 17:14 13
6 Aluminij 9 3 3 3 14:9 12
7 Celje 8 3 2 3 11:11 11
8 Mura 9 2 2 5 10:21 8
9 Grosuplje 9 2 2 5 12:17 8
10 Radomlje 8 1 2 5 8:16 5
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva liga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. SNL 2027/2028 (Main)