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Muranga vs Nairobi United

Kenya Kenya

Premier League 2025/2026
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Match Events

1' Event
2' Event
22' Event

AI Match Summary

Nairobi United in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nairobi United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Muranga
20%
Draws
38%
Nairobi United
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Muranga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Muranga have won more games recently than Nairobi United.
  • Win probability leans Muranga's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Muranga Clean Sheet 20%
Nairobi United Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Muranga Nairobi United
Matches Played 26 32
Wins 11 10
Draws 5 10
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.31 1.09
Goals Conceded 1.35 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 18, 2026 Premier League
Muranga vs Nairobi United
0:0
Apr 19, 2026 Premier League
Muranga vs Nairobi United
2:4
Dec 12, 2025 Premier League
Nairobi United vs Muranga
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Muranga 40 / 100
Nairobi United 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Muranga Nairobi United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Muranga Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Muranga scored in 81% of their last 26 outings.

Nairobi United's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 32 matches.

H2H data points to 2.67 goals as a typical output.

Muranga went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Muranga VS Nairobi United
0.88 Goals Scored 0.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Muranga

(Home)
31 May
Muranga
2 : 1
Mara Sugar
24 May
Bidco United
0 : 2
Muranga
17 May
Muranga
1 : 3
Mahia
10 May
Muranga
1 : 0
Kakamega Homeboyz
06 May
Police FC
2 : 1
Muranga
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Nairobi United

(Away)
31 May
Mahia
0 : 1
Nairobi United
24 May
Nairobi United
0 : 0
Police FC
16 May
Nairobi United
2 : 2
Posta Rangers
10 May
Kariobangi Sharks
2 : 0
Nairobi United
06 May
Nairobi United
1 : 0
Tusker
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mahia 34 20 9 5 50:22 69
2 Leopards 34 19 7 8 44:28 64
3 Police FC 34 13 16 5 31:21 55
4 Nairobi United 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
5 Shabana 34 14 10 10 35:34 52
6 Kakamega Homeboyz 34 12 13 9 47:37 49
7 KCB 34 13 9 12 36:37 48
8 Muranga 34 13 8 13 42:41 47
9 Tusker 34 13 6 15 27:32 45
10 APS Bomet 34 11 11 12 37:35 44
11 Mara Sugar 34 10 14 10 30:30 44
12 Bandari 34 9 17 8 26:26 44
13 Ulinzi Stars 34 11 8 15 34:37 41
14 Mathare United 34 11 8 15 31:35 41
15 Posta Rangers 34 9 13 12 31:40 40
16 Kariobangi Sharks 34 8 14 12 30:33 38
17 Bidco United 34 5 12 17 19:40 27
18 Sofapaka 34 3 10 21 19:51 19
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)