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Mushuc Runa vs Orense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Bellavista, Ambato
Mushuc Runa Logo

Mushuc Runa

Mon, Oct 19, 2026
VS
08:30 PM
Orense Logo

Orense

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mushuc Runa host Orense in the Liga Pro. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Orense have shipped 1.62 goals a game lately, while Mushuc Runa have conceded 1.3 and scored 1.2. Past meetings favor Orense slightly — 2-3-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 20, 2026, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.44 vs 0.88, favoring Mushuc Runa. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Mushuc Runa
30%
Draws
35%
Orense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Orense's 1.21 goals per match outpaces what Mushuc Runa have produced (1.2).
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Mushuc Runa Clean Sheet 20%
Orense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mushuc Runa Orense
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 9
Draws 10 4
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.2 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 20, 2026 Liga Pro
Mushuc Runa vs Orense
2:1
Mar 19, 2026 Liga Pro
Orense vs Mushuc Runa
3:2
Sep 14, 2025 Liga Pro
Orense vs Mushuc Runa
3:1
May 17, 2025 Liga Pro
Mushuc Runa vs Orense
2:5
Mar 6, 2025 Copa Sudamericana
Mushuc Runa vs Orense
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mushuc Runa 31 / 100
Orense 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mushuc Runa Orense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mushuc Runa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Orense conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 4.40 goals per match.

Mushuc Runa found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Mushuc Runa has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mushuc Runa VS Orense
1 Goals Scored 1.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mushuc Runa

(Home)
09 Oct
Delfin
3 : 2
Mushuc Runa
20 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
1 : 1
Mushuc Runa
12 Sept
Guayaquil City
3 : 1
Mushuc Runa
08 Sept
Mushuc Runa
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
02 Sept
LDU Quito
0 : 0
Mushuc Runa
Page 1 of 6

Orense

(Away)
21 Sept
Manta
2 : 1
Orense
15 Sept
U. Catolica
2 : 1
Orense
08 Sept
Orense
4 : 3
Guayaquil City
03 Sept
Leones del Norte
1 : 0
Orense
30 Aug
Orense
1 : 2
Macara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
11 Mushuc Runa 32 9 12 11 38:42 39
12 Dep. Cuenca 31 10 7 14 26:38 37
13 Orense 31 9 6 16 37:49 33
14 Tecnico U. 31 10 3 18 29:43 33
15 Delfin 32 8 8 16 23:34 32
16 Manta 31 6 6 19 19:43 24
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)