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Musongati vs Kayanza United

Burundi Burundi

Primus League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Musongati play Kayanza United in the Primus League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Musongati averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. Kayanza United averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. In past meetings, Musongati won 4, Kayanza United won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 8, 2026 ended 1:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Musongati and 0.94 for Kayanza United. This points to a Musongati double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Musongati
28%
Draws
22%
Kayanza United
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Musongati

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence
  • Musongati picked up more points recently compared to Kayanza United.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Musongati Clean Sheet 24%
Kayanza United Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Musongati Kayanza United
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 7
Draws 8 11
Losses 5 12
Goals Scored 1.4 1.23
Goals Conceded 0.7 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Primus League
Kayanza United vs Musongati
1:4
Nov 9, 2025 Primus League
Musongati vs Kayanza United
2:2
May 6, 2025 Primus League
Musongati vs Kayanza United
4:1
Aug 25, 2024 Primus League
Kayanza United vs Musongati
0:3
Jan 24, 2024 Primus League
Kayanza United vs Musongati
0:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Musongati 50 / 100
Kayanza United 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Musongati Kayanza United

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Musongati or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19%
2.38
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.2%
2.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Musongati attacking → ← attacking Kayanza United

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Musongati scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Kayanza United let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Musongati went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Kayanza United lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

59 Points in last 5 32
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Aigle Noir30218162:2571
2Musongati30178542:2159
3Flambeau du Centre30168642:2356
4Royal Vision301721147:3153
5Rukinzo30148849:2850
6Vital'O30148845:2750
7Bumamuru30147947:3349
8Muzinga301110937:3843
9Olympic Star301091136:3539
10Kayanza United308121040:4536
11Le Messager Ngozi30891331:3333
12Ngozi City30891337:4333
13Inter Star30881437:4232
14Dynamik30851735:5829
15Garage Express30391815:6118
16Green Farmers30142525:847