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Mwatate United vs Mombasa United

Kenya Kenya

Super League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Super League game between Mwatate United and Mombasa United finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mombasa United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Mwatate United
6%
Draws
90%
Mombasa United
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Mombasa United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mombasa United come out ahead of Mwatate United on wins alone.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Mombasa United taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.4%
Mwatate United Clean Sheet 20%
Mombasa United Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mwatate United Mombasa United
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 19
Draws 3 3
Losses 22 8
Goals Scored 0.75 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Super League
Mwatate United vs Mombasa United
0:1
Dec 17, 2025 Super League
Mombasa United vs Mwatate United
3:0
Jun 15, 2024 Super League
Mombasa United vs Mwatate United
0:0
Sep 30, 2023 Super League
Mwatate United vs Mombasa United
0:0
Jun 28, 2023 Super League
Mwatate United vs Mombasa United
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mwatate United 10 / 100
Mombasa United 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mwatate United Mombasa United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOM Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mwatate United found the back of the net in 40% of recent matches (30 games).

Mombasa United let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 1.20 goals as a typical output.

Mombasa United lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mwatate United VS Mombasa United
0.75 Goals Scored 0.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 38%
25% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mwatate United

(Home)
13 Jun
Equity Bank
2 : 0
Mwatate United
07 Jun
Mwatate United
0 : 3
3K FC
01 Jun
MCF
2 : 0
Mwatate United
28 May
Mwatate United
0 : 2
Naivas FC
24 May
Mwatate United
0 : 1
Mombasa United
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Mombasa United

(Away)
13 Jun
Naivas FC
1 : 1
Mombasa United
07 Jun
Mombasa United
1 : 0
Nzoia Sugar
01 Jun
Luanda Villa
1 : 0
Mombasa United
27 May
Mombasa United
0 : 0
3K FC
24 May
Mwatate United
0 : 1
Mombasa United
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Migori38256757:2981
23K FC38238762:2677
3Mombasa United382441051:3276
4Equity Bank382111656:2874
5MOFA381616651:3064
6Fortune Sacco381891161:4163
7Naivas FC3817101147:3061
8Talanta FC381691353:4157
9Kibera381581532:3353
10Soy United3814101431:2752
11Nzoia Sugar3812141237:3650
12Gucha Stars381281835:4144
13Luanda Villa381271930:5143
14Kabati381091932:5239
15Kisumu All-Stars381091923:4739
16Nairobi City Stars389121732:4439
17Darajani Gogo381082027:4838
18MCF389101924:4234
19Vihiga United38992029:5530
20Mwatate United38672527:6425
Promotion - Premier League 2026/2027 (Main)