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Mwatate United vs Naivas FC

Kenya Kenya

Super League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Naivas FC in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Naivas FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Mwatate United
6%
Draws
90%
Naivas FC
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Naivas FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Naivas FC lately — more wins on the board than Mwatate United.
  • Naivas FC are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Mwatate United Clean Sheet 12%
Naivas FC Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mwatate United Naivas FC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 13
Draws 3 7
Losses 22 10
Goals Scored 0.75 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 28, 2026 Super League
Mwatate United vs Naivas FC
0:2
Oct 25, 2025 Super League
Naivas FC vs Mwatate United
3:1
Apr 6, 2024 Super League
Naivas FC vs Mwatate United
0:0
Sep 16, 2023 Super League
Mwatate United vs Naivas FC
0:0
Apr 8, 2023 Super League
Naivas FC vs Mwatate United
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mwatate United 10 / 100
Naivas FC 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mwatate United Naivas FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Naivas FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

Mwatate United scored in 40% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Naivas FC registered 1 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mwatate United VS Naivas FC
0.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mwatate United

(Home)
13 Jun
Equity Bank
2 : 0
Mwatate United
07 Jun
Mwatate United
0 : 3
3K FC
01 Jun
MCF
2 : 0
Mwatate United
28 May
Mwatate United
0 : 2
Naivas FC
24 May
Mwatate United
0 : 1
Mombasa United
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Naivas FC

(Away)
13 Jun
Naivas FC
1 : 1
Mombasa United
07 Jun
Kabati
2 : 1
Naivas FC
01 Jun
Naivas FC
2 : 0
Vihiga United
28 May
Mwatate United
0 : 2
Naivas FC
24 May
Nzoia Sugar
0 : 1
Naivas FC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Migori 38 25 6 7 57:29 81
2 3K FC 38 23 8 7 62:26 77
3 Mombasa United 38 24 4 10 51:32 76
4 Equity Bank 38 21 11 6 56:28 74
5 MOFA 38 16 16 6 51:30 64
6 Fortune Sacco 38 18 9 11 61:41 63
7 Naivas FC 38 17 10 11 47:30 61
8 Talanta FC 38 16 9 13 53:41 57
9 Kibera 38 15 8 15 32:33 53
10 Soy United 38 14 10 14 31:27 52
11 Nzoia Sugar 38 12 14 12 37:36 50
12 Gucha Stars 38 12 8 18 35:41 44
13 Luanda Villa 38 12 7 19 30:51 43
14 Kabati 38 10 9 19 32:52 39
15 Kisumu All-Stars 38 10 9 19 23:47 39
16 Nairobi City Stars 38 9 12 17 32:44 39
17 Darajani Gogo 38 10 8 20 27:48 38
18 MCF 38 9 10 19 24:42 34
19 Vihiga United 38 9 9 20 29:55 30
20 Mwatate United 38 6 7 25 27:64 25
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