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NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Netherlands Netherlands

Eerste Divisie Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Muzungu M.
Own Goal
30'
Johnson J.
37'
Jensen F.

AI Match Summary

NAC Breda in this Eerste Divisie matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored NAC Breda.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
NAC Breda
20%
Draws
23%
Jong Ajax
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: NAC Breda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Jong Ajax haven't matched NAC Breda's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans NAC Breda's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Eerste Divisie form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
NAC Breda Clean Sheet 10%
Jong Ajax Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric NAC Breda Jong Ajax
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 9
Draws 6 4
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.38 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.83 2.1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.44 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Eerste Divisie
NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax
3:2
Mar 8, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda
0:1
Nov 10, 2023 Eerste Divisie
NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax
1:1
Mar 13, 2023 Eerste Divisie
NAC Breda vs Jong Ajax
2:6
Sep 12, 2022 Eerste Divisie
Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

NAC Breda Compare

Top Goalscorer Gladon P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Reulen P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22

Jong Ajax Compare

Top Goalscorer Pugno D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Unuvar E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

NAC Breda 83 / 100
Jong Ajax 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
NAC Breda Jong Ajax

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAC Breda Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

NAC Breda found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Jong Ajax let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Solid form: NAC Breda remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

NAC Breda VS Jong Ajax
2.13 Goals Scored 1.63
2.25 Goals Conceded 2.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

NAC Breda

(Home)
09 Oct
NAC Breda
1 : 0
Maastricht
03 Oct
Vitesse
2 : 2
NAC Breda
26 Sept
NAC Breda
4 : 2
Eindhoven FC
20 Sept
De Graafschap
1 : 2
NAC Breda
11 Sept
NAC Breda
2 : 3
Jong Utrecht
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Jong Ajax

(Away)
09 Oct
Jong Ajax
0 : 3
Venlo
18 Sept
Jong Ajax
0 : 0
Roda
14 Sept
Jong Utrecht
6 : 1
Jong Ajax
11 Sept
Jong Ajax
0 : 2
Waalwijk
04 Sept
Almere City
0 : 1
Jong Ajax
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Heracles 10 8 1 1 31:12 25
2 Almere City 10 7 1 2 22:7 22
3 Venlo 10 7 0 3 26:14 21
4 FC Emmen 10 6 1 3 22:18 19
5 NAC Breda 10 5 2 3 20:19 17
6 Roda 10 4 4 2 10:8 16
7 Maastricht 10 5 1 4 13:20 16
8 FC Volendam 10 5 0 5 22:17 15
9 Waalwijk 10 3 5 2 19:15 14
10 Vitesse 10 4 2 4 15:15 14
11 Jong AZ Alkmaar 10 4 1 5 22:18 13
12 Jong PSV 10 3 4 3 15:17 13
13 TOP Oss 10 4 0 6 15:15 12
14 Den Bosch 10 3 2 5 14:18 11
15 Eindhoven FC 10 3 2 5 15:22 11
16 De Graafschap 10 3 2 5 13:23 11
17 Helmond Sport 10 2 3 5 16:19 9
18 Jong Ajax 10 2 2 6 13:25 8
19 Dordrecht 10 2 2 6 13:27 8
20 Jong Utrecht 10 2 1 7 16:23 7
Promotion - Eredivisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)