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Nacao U20 vs Hercilio Luz U20

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense U20 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nacao U20 play Hercilio Luz U20 in the Catarinense U20 2024. Hercilio Luz U20 are favorites here. Recently, Nacao U20 averaged 1.26 goals scored and 1.9 conceded. Hercilio Luz U20 averaged 1.83 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. In past meetings, Nacao U20 won 0, Hercilio Luz U20 won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 7, 2024 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.42 for Nacao U20 and 1.25 for Hercilio Luz U20. This points to a Hercilio Luz U20 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Nacao U20
15%
Draws
57%
Hercilio Luz U20
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hercilio Luz U20

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence
  • Nacao U20 picked up more points recently compared to Hercilio Luz U20.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.42 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 63%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 81%
Over 2.5 Goals 63%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%
Nacao U20 Clean Sheet 19%
Hercilio Luz U20 Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 73%
Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacao U20 Hercilio Luz U20
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 7 15
Draws 6 3
Losses 18 12
Goals Scored 1.26 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.53

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 7, 2024 Catarinense U20
Nacao U20 vs Hercilio Luz U20
0:1
Apr 12, 2024 Catarinense U20
Hercilio Luz U20 vs Nacao U20
4:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacao U20 29 / 100
Hercilio Luz U20 53 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacao U20 Hercilio Luz U20

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hercilio Luz U20 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Hercilio Luz U20 & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +40%
5.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.3%
1.75
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Nacao U20 attacking → ← attacking Hercilio Luz U20

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nacao U20 scored in 61% of their last 31 games.

Hercilio Luz U20 let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Nacao U20 went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Hercilio Luz U20 lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 48
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Barra FC U2020153259:1248
2Criciuma U2020144246:1746
3Marcilio Dias U2020134345:1843
4Hercilio Luz U2020122643:2738
5Avai U202089337:2033
6Figueirense U2020721130:3623
7Joinville U202065927:3623
8Brusque U2020641026:3722
9Chapecoense-SC U2020541134:3719
10Nacao U2020351219:4114
11Inter de Lages U202000208:930