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Nacao vs Gremio Juventus

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nacao play Gremio Juventus in the Catarinense 2. It looks like a close match. Recently, Nacao averaged 0.72 goals scored and 1.48 conceded. Gremio Juventus averaged 0.86 goals scored and 1.18 conceded. In past meetings, Nacao won 1, Gremio Juventus won 0, and they drew 4. Their last match on Jun 17, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Nacao and 1.44 for Gremio Juventus. This points to a Nacao double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Nacao
35%
Draws
29%
Gremio Juventus
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Nacao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Nacao picked up more points recently compared to Gremio Juventus.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 52%
Over 2.5 Goals 27%
Over 3.5 Goals 16%
Over 4.5 Goals 8%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35%
Nacao Clean Sheet 16%
Gremio Juventus Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 47%
Second Half Goal 49%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacao Gremio Juventus
Matches Played 25 22
Wins 3 5
Draws 12 7
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 0.72 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 17, 2026 Catarinense 2
Nacao vs Gremio Juventus
1:0
Apr 26, 2026 Catarinense 2
Gremio Juventus vs Nacao
1:1
Oct 12, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Gremio Juventus vs Nacao
0:0
Sep 7, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Nacao vs Gremio Juventus
0:0
Jun 29, 2025 Catarinense 2
Nacao vs Gremio Juventus
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacao Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavo Modesto
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Gremio Juventus Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacao 36 / 100
Gremio Juventus 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacao Gremio Juventus

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Nacao or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +28.5%
4.76
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Nacao attacking → ← attacking Gremio Juventus

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nacao scored in 52% of their last 25 games.

Gremio Juventus let in goals in 73% of their last 22 matches.

Games between these two average 0.60 goals.

Nacao went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Gremio Juventus lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 22
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Hercilio Luz1392228:929
2CA Metropolitano1382321:1126
3Blumenau1373327:924
4Caravaggio1373331:1624
5Tubarao1365219:1023
6Guarani de Palhoca1343613:2115
7Fluminense-SC1342711:1614
8Nacao1335511:2014
9Gremio Juventus1332812:2011
10Jaragua-SC1301125:461