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Stadium Background

Nacao vs Gremio Juventus

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nacao play Gremio Juventus in the Catarinense 2. It looks like a close match. Recently, Nacao averaged 0.75 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. Gremio Juventus averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. In past meetings, Nacao won 1, Gremio Juventus won 0, and they drew 4. Their last match on Jun 17, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Nacao and 1.44 for Gremio Juventus. This points to a Nacao double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Nacao
20%
Draws
38%
Gremio Juventus
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nacao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Gremio Juventus has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Nacao.
  • Model forecasts a 42% win probability edge for Nacao.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Catarinense 2 provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 34%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Nacao Clean Sheet 16%
Gremio Juventus Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacao Gremio Juventus
Matches Played 25 22
Wins 3 5
Draws 12 7
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 0.75 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 17, 2026 Catarinense 2
Nacao vs Gremio Juventus
1:0
Apr 26, 2026 Catarinense 2
Gremio Juventus vs Nacao
1:1
Oct 12, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Gremio Juventus vs Nacao
0:0
Sep 7, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Nacao vs Gremio Juventus
0:0
Jun 29, 2025 Catarinense 2
Nacao vs Gremio Juventus
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacao Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavo Modesto
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Gremio Juventus Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacao 41 / 100
Gremio Juventus 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacao Gremio Juventus

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nacao scored in 52% of their last 25 games.

Gremio Juventus let in goals in 73% of their last 22 matches.

Games between these two average 0.60 goals.

Nacao went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Gremio Juventus lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nacao VS Gremio Juventus
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hercilio Luz1392228:929
2CA Metropolitano1382321:1126
3Blumenau1373327:924
4Caravaggio1373331:1624
5Tubarao1365219:1023
6Guarani de Palhoca1343613:2115
7Fluminense-SC1342711:1614
8Nacao1335511:2014
9Gremio Juventus1332812:2011
10Jaragua-SC1301125:461