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Nacao vs Guarani de Palhoca

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

66' Event
Kaio Godoi

AI Match Summary

The Catarinense 2 game between Nacao and Guarani de Palhoca finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nacao.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Nacao
39%
Draws
31%
Guarani de Palhoca
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Nacao haven't matched Guarani de Palhoca's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Nacao Clean Sheet 14%
Guarani de Palhoca Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacao Guarani de Palhoca
Matches Played 26 28
Wins 4 9
Draws 12 7
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 0.5 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.88 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 21, 2026 Catarinense 2
Guarani de Palhoca vs Nacao
0:0
May 3, 2026 Catarinense 2
Nacao vs Guarani de Palhoca
1:0
Aug 19, 2023 Catarinense 2
Nacao vs Guarani de Palhoca
1:1
Aug 13, 2023 Catarinense 2
Guarani de Palhoca vs Nacao
0:0
Jun 18, 2023 Catarinense 2
Nacao vs Guarani de Palhoca
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacao Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaio Godoi
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Guarani de Palhoca Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacao 30 / 100
Guarani de Palhoca 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacao Guarani de Palhoca

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guarani de Palhoca let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Nacao has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Nacao's goal record stands at 54% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Nacao VS Guarani de Palhoca
0.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hercilio Luz15112231:935
2Caravaggio1593342:1730
3CA Metropolitano1592425:1729
4Blumenau1583431:1227
5Tubarao1565422:1523
6Fluminense-SC1553714:1818
7Nacao1545614:2217
8Guarani de Palhoca1544714:2316
9Gremio Juventus1542913:2114
10Jaragua-SC1501145:571