Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nacional Asuncion vs Olimpia Asuncion

Paraguay Paraguay

Copa de Primera Estadio Arsenio Erico, Asunción
Wed, Jul 29, 2026
VS
09:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Copa de Primera. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Nacional Asuncion at 1.13 goals for, 0.63 against; Olimpia Asuncion at 1.63 for, 1.63 against. Past meetings favor Olimpia Asuncion slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 4, 2026, ending 3:0. Model xG sits at 1.38 vs 1.13, favoring Olimpia Asuncion. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Nacional Asuncion
33%
Draws
27%
Olimpia Asuncion
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Nacional Asuncion

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Olimpia Asuncion have won more games recently than Nacional Asuncion.
  • Nacional Asuncion are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Olimpia Asuncion arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Olimpia Asuncion, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Nacional Asuncion Clean Sheet 68%
Olimpia Asuncion Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional Asuncion Olimpia Asuncion
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 13 21
Draws 12 6
Losses 4 6
Goals Scored 1.13 1.63
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Copa de Primera
Olimpia Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion
3:0
Feb 8, 2026 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Olimpia Asuncion
1:2
Sep 14, 2025 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Olimpia Asuncion
4:1
Jul 6, 2025 Copa de Primera
Olimpia Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion
1:1
May 25, 2025 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Olimpia Asuncion
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional Asuncion 50 / 100
Olimpia Asuncion 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional Asuncion Olimpia Asuncion

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Nacional Asuncion scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Nacional Asuncion went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Olimpia Asuncion conceded in 61% of 33 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Nacional Asuncion VS Olimpia Asuncion
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional Asuncion

(Home)
25 Jul
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 1
Nacional Asuncion
24 May
Nacional Asuncion
2 : 1
Libertad Asuncion
15 May
Rubio Nu
1 : 1
Nacional Asuncion
09 May
Nacional Asuncion
2 : 1
Sportivo Trinidense
03 May
Guarani
0 : 1
Nacional Asuncion
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Olimpia Asuncion

(Away)
26 Jul
Olimpia Asuncion
0 : 1
Libertad Asuncion
17 Jul
Flamengo RJ
4 : 2
Olimpia Asuncion
27 May
Olimpia Asuncion
3 : 1
A. Italiano
23 May
Sp. Luqueno
1 : 2
Olimpia Asuncion
20 May
Olimpia Asuncion
3 : 1
Vasco
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sp. Luqueno11002:13
2Sportivo Trinidense11002:13
32 de Mayo11001:03
4Libertad Asuncion11001:03
5Nacional Asuncion10101:11
6San Lorenzo10101:11
7Recoleta10101:11
8Sportivo Ameliano10101:11
9Cerro Porteno10011:20
10Guarani10011:20
11Olimpia Asuncion10010:10
12Rubio Nu10010:10
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)