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Nacional Asuncion vs San Lorenzo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Paraguay Paraguay

Copa de Primera Estadio Arsenio Erico, Asunción
Nacional Asuncion Logo

Nacional Asuncion

0 - 2
FT
San Lorenzo Logo

San Lorenzo

Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Fretes I.
23' Event
Ferreira M.
45'
Cohener L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-2. The second leg ended 0-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Nacional Asuncion
15%
Draws
34%
San Lorenzo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nacional Asuncion

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Nacional Asuncion carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Nacional Asuncion taking it.
  • Nacional Asuncion have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor San Lorenzo, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Nacional Asuncion Clean Sheet 20%
San Lorenzo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional Asuncion San Lorenzo
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 14 7
Draws 9 5
Losses 6 18
Goals Scored 1.38 0.83
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 3, 2026 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs San Lorenzo
0:2
Aug 28, 2026 Copa de Primera
San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion
0:3
Mar 22, 2026 Copa de Primera
San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion
0:0
Jan 24, 2026 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs San Lorenzo
1:0
Oct 25, 2020 Copa de Primera
San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacional Asuncion Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

San Lorenzo Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferreira M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Amarilla R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional Asuncion 58 / 100
San Lorenzo 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional Asuncion San Lorenzo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nacional Asuncion Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Lorenzo has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Nacional Asuncion scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Nacional Asuncion remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Nacional Asuncion VS San Lorenzo
1.63 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional Asuncion

(Home)
03 Nov
Nacional Asuncion
0 : 2
San Lorenzo
31 Oct
Sp. Luqueno
0 : 3
Nacional Asuncion
24 Oct
Nacional Asuncion
0 : 1
Sportivo Trinidense
17 Oct
Guarani
0 : 2
Nacional Asuncion
12 Oct
Nacional Asuncion
1 : 0
Recoleta
Page 1 of 6

San Lorenzo

(Away)
03 Nov
Nacional Asuncion
0 : 2
San Lorenzo
31 Oct
San Lorenzo
2 : 1
Libertad Asuncion
25 Oct
San Lorenzo
1 : 3
Cerro Porteno
18 Oct
Sp. Luqueno
3 : 2
San Lorenzo
14 Oct
Cerro Porteno
3 : 2
San Lorenzo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Olimpia Asuncion 18 12 3 3 34:13 39
2 Nacional Asuncion 18 9 5 4 26:11 32
3 Guarani 18 8 7 3 20:14 31
4 Sportivo Trinidense 18 9 4 5 28:18 31
5 Libertad Asuncion 18 9 3 6 25:20 30
6 2 de Mayo 18 8 6 4 18:18 30
7 Cerro Porteno 18 8 3 7 24:19 27
8 Sportivo Ameliano 18 4 7 7 19:25 19
9 Sp. Luqueno 18 6 1 11 22:33 19
10 Rubio Nu 18 4 4 10 19:34 16
11 Recoleta 18 4 3 11 20:32 15
12 San Lorenzo 18 2 4 12 12:30 10
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)