Sport Picks
Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano
Paraguay
Copa de Primera Estadio Arsenio Erico, Asunción 
Match Events
43'
43'
Benitez J.
46'
46'
Sub
Cabrera M. In: Jara F.
Out: Cabrera M.
46'
46'
Sub
Aranda S. In: Cabral R.
Out: Aranda S.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Copa de Primera tie, finishing 1-1. Extra time or penalties follow.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
70%
17%
13%
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Nacional Asuncion
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
88%
/ Very High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Nacional Asuncion lately — more wins on the board than Sportivo Ameliano.
- Model gives Nacional Asuncion a 70% chance of winning this.
- Nacional Asuncion have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Sportivo Ameliano, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Nacional Asuncion Clean Sheet 68%
Sportivo Ameliano Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nacional Asuncion | Sportivo Ameliano |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 10 |
| Draws | 11 | 11 |
| Losses | 5 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.13 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 20, 2026 Copa de Primera
Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion
1:1
Feb 19, 2026 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano
1:1
Nov 20, 2025 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano
2:0
Aug 29, 2025 Copa de Primera
Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion
3:0
May 4, 2025 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Nacional Asuncion Compare
Top Goalscorer Colman Escobar D. J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Sportivo Ameliano Compare
Top Goalscorer Franco F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nacional Asuncion 77 / 100
Sportivo Ameliano 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nacional Asuncion Sportivo Ameliano
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick NAC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Nacional Asuncion's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Solid form: Nacional Asuncion remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
Defensive concern: Sportivo Ameliano conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
Nacional Asuncion VS Sportivo Ameliano
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Nacional Asuncion
(Home) 24 May
Nacional Asuncion
2 : 1 Libertad Asuncion
15 May
Rubio Nu
1 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
09 May
Nacional Asuncion
2 : 1 Sportivo Trinidense
03 May
Guarani
0 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
24 Apr
Nacional Asuncion
2 : 1 Recoleta
Page 1 of 6
24 May
Nacional Asuncion
2 : 1 Libertad Asuncion
09 May
Nacional Asuncion
2 : 1 Sportivo Trinidense
24 Apr
Nacional Asuncion
2 : 1 Recoleta
11 Apr
Nacional Asuncion
0 : 0 Cerro Porteno
27 Mar
Nacional Asuncion
3 : 2 Sp. Luqueno
Page 1 of 3
Sportivo Ameliano
(Away) 24 May
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 2 Sportivo Trinidense
16 May
Guarani
1 : 0 Sportivo Ameliano
11 May
Sportivo Ameliano
3 : 2 Recoleta
03 May
Olimpia Asuncion
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
24 Apr
Cerro Porteno
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
Page 1 of 6
16 May
Guarani
1 : 0 Sportivo Ameliano
03 May
Olimpia Asuncion
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
24 Apr
Cerro Porteno
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
10 Apr
2 de Mayo
1 : 2 Sportivo Ameliano
31 Mar
San Lorenzo
1 : 2 Sportivo Ameliano
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 37:17 | 49 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 31:22 | 39 |
| 3 | Cerro Porteno | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 30:22 | 38 |
| 4 | Sportivo Ameliano | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 27:21 | 33 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 30:24 | 32 |
| 6 | Libertad Asuncion | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 34:26 | 31 |
| 7 | Guarani | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 27:23 | 29 |
| 8 | Recoleta | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 35:32 | 28 |
| 9 | Rubio Nu | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 15:26 | 23 |
| 10 | 2 de Mayo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 18:35 | 22 |
| 11 | Sp. Luqueno | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 24:33 | 20 |
| 12 | San Lorenzo | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 14:41 | 15 |
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