Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nacional de Muriae vs Venda Nova FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 3
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nacional de Muriae host Venda Nova FC in the Mineiro 3. This one's hard to separate. Nacional de Muriae have averaged 1.32 scored and 1.21 conceded recently, against Venda Nova FC's 3.25 scored and 0.25 conceded. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. xG projections (0.79 - 2.05) back Venda Nova FC to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Nacional de Muriae
22%
Draws
43%
Venda Nova FC
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Venda Nova FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Nacional de Muriae have won more games recently than Venda Nova FC.
  • Model gives Venda Nova FC a 43% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 22.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Nacional de Muriae Clean Sheet 10%
Venda Nova FC Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional de Muriae Venda Nova FC
Matches Played 28 4
Wins 8 3
Draws 11 1
Losses 9 0
Goals Scored 1.32 3.25
Goals Conceded 1.21 0.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.79 2.05
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional de Muriae 18 / 100
Venda Nova FC 58 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional de Muriae Venda Nova FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Venda Nova FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nacional de Muriae found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (28 games).

Recent resilience: Nacional de Muriae stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Venda Nova FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 25% of 4 matches.

Scoring Trends

Nacional de Muriae VS Venda Nova FC
1.38 Goals Scored 2.6
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.2
75% Over 1.5 60%
50% Over 2.5 60%
25% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional de Muriae

(Home)
05 Oct
Nacional de Muriae
2 : 1
Nova Lavras
25 Sept
Inter de Minas
0 : 1
Nacional de Muriae
21 Sept
Nacional de Muriae
3 : 0
Santarritense
21 Jun
Valeriodoce
2 : 2
Nacional de Muriae
14 Jun
Nacional de Muriae
0 : 3
North Esporte Clube
Page 1 of 6

Venda Nova FC

(Away)
09 Oct
Venda Nova FC
3 : 0
Inter de Minas
03 Oct
Novo Esporte
0 : 0
Venda Nova FC
27 Sept
Santarritense
0 : 8
Venda Nova FC
19 Sept
Venda Nova FC
2 : 1
Nova Lavras

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venda Nova FC 4 3 1 0 13:1 10
2 Nacional de Muriae 3 3 0 0 6:1 9
3 Novo Esporte 3 1 1 1 2:4 4
4 Inter de Minas 4 1 0 3 8:7 3
5 Nova Lavras 3 1 0 2 5:4 3
6 Santarritense 3 0 0 3 1:18 0
Promotion - Mineiro 3 (Final Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paracatu 4 3 0 1 10:2 9
2 Betim FC 2 3 3 0 0 5:0 9
3 Sao Joao del Rei 4 2 0 2 3:2 6
4 Araxa 3 1 0 2 4:4 3
5 Funorte EC 3 1 0 2 1:6 3
6 Siderurgica 3 0 0 3 0:9 0
Promotion - Mineiro 3 (Final Group)