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Nacional PB vs Pombal

Brazil Brazil

Paraibano
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Renezinho
(Penalty)
36'
Danilo Bala
46'
Sub
Linhares da Silva L. In: Douglas J.
Out: Linhares da Silva L.

AI Match Summary

Nacional PB in this Paraibano matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nacional PB.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Nacional PB
35%
Draws
35%
Pombal
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Nacional PB have won more games recently than Pombal.
  • 30% — that's where the model lands on Nacional PB taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Nacional PB have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Nacional PB Clean Sheet 68%
Pombal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional PB Pombal
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 7
Draws 11 6
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 1.31 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Paraibano
Nacional PB vs Pombal
3:0
Jan 15, 2025 Paraibano
Nacional PB vs Pombal
2:1
Mar 10, 2024 Paraibano
Nacional PB vs Pombal
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacional PB Compare

Top Goalscorer Rogerio
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pingo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Pombal Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional PB 68 / 100
Pombal 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional PB Pombal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nacional PB Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pombal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

Nacional PB found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Historical meetings average 2.33 goals per match.

Nacional PB has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Nacional PB VS Pombal
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional PB

(Home)
22 Feb
Treze PB
1 : 2
Nacional PB
12 Feb
Nacional PB
1 : 1
Sousa
09 Feb
Serra Branca
2 : 2
Nacional PB
05 Feb
Nacional PB
0 : 0
Botafogo PB
01 Feb
Atletico Cajazeirense
1 : 0
Nacional PB
Page 1 of 6

Pombal

(Away)
22 Feb
Sousa
2 : 0
Pombal
18 Feb
Confianca PB
3 : 2
Pombal
14 Feb
Pombal
1 : 1
Atletico Cajazeirense
04 Feb
EC de Patos
0 : 1
Pombal
01 Feb
Pombal
3 : 1
Serra Branca
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Botafogo PB 9 4 4 1 13:7 16
2 Campinense 9 4 3 2 14:9 15
3 Sousa 9 4 3 2 13:8 15
4 Serra Branca 9 4 2 3 11:10 14
5 Nacional PB 9 3 5 1 14:10 14
6 Treze PB 9 4 0 5 11:11 12
7 EC de Patos 9 3 2 4 6:9 11
8 Atletico Cajazeirense 9 3 1 5 6:11 10
9 Confianca PB 9 2 2 5 12:17 8
10 Pombal 9 2 2 5 10:18 8
Promotion - Paraibano (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paraibano 2 2027 (Main)